American Elephants


The Way Things Work in the World of Environmental Activism. by The Elephant's Child
May 15, 2009, 10:32 pm
Filed under: Economy, Environment, Science/Technology | Tags: , ,

The Scientific Method

  1. Observe a phenomenon carefully.
  2. Develop a hypothesis that possibly explains the phenomenon.
  3. Perform a test in an attempt to disprove or invalidate the hypothesis.  If the hypothesis is disproven, return to steps 1. and 2.
  4. A hypothesis that stubbornly refuses to be invalidated may be correct.  Continue testing.

The Scientific Computer Modeling Method

  1. Observe a phenomenon carefully.
  2. Develop a computer model that mimics the behavior of the phenomenon.
  3. Select observations that conform to the model predictions and dismiss observations as of inadequate quality that conflict with the computer model.
  4. In instances where all of the observations conflict with the model, “refine” the model with fudge factors to give a better match with pesky facts.  Assert that these factors reveal fundamental processes previously unknown in association with the phenomenon.  Under no circumstances willingly reveal your complete data sets, methods, or computer codes.
  5. Upon achieving a model of incomprehensible complexity that still somewhat resembles the phenomenon, begin to issue to the popular media dire predictions of catastrophe that will occur as far in the future as possible, at least beyond your professional lifetime.
  6. Continue to “refine” the model in order to maximize funding and the awarding of Nobel Prizes.
  7. Dismiss as unqualified, ignorant, and conspiracy theorists all who offer criticisms of the model
  8. Repeat steps 3. through 7. indefinitely.

This succinct explanation of the way things work was written by Roy Tucker.

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1 Comment so far
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Where’s the double-blind tests of these computer models? Without ‘em, there’s no science there.

Comment by Micha Elyi




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