American Elephants


Don’t Read Too Much Into This, But You Need a New Talking Point! by The Elephant's Child

The June jobs report is really discouraging, though I don’t think that many of us expected any great improvement. Yesterday Obama CEA Chairman Alan Krueger advised us not to read too much into monthly jobs reports, while at the same time encouraging us to keep on hoping. We should keep on keeping on with the policies that have brought us the worst recovery in history from a recession that officially ended in June 2009.

The Romney campaign issued a press release that clarifies the situation. After 41 straight months of unemployment over 8 percent, we perhaps should begin reading something into these reports. The Romney campaign enumerates the administration’s previous advice—they’ve been advising us “not to read too much into the reports” for quite a while:

June 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/07/06/employment-situation-june)

May 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/06/01/employment-situation-may)

April 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/05/04/employment-situation-april)

March 2012: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/04/06/employment-situation-march)

February 2012: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report; nevertheless, the trend in job market indicators over recent months is an encouraging sign.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/03/09/employment-situation-february)

January 2012: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report; nevertheless, the trend in job market indicators over recent months is an encouraging sign.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/02/03/employment-situation-january)

December 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/01/06/employment-situation-december)

November 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/12/02/employment-situation-november)

October 2011: “The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and employment estimates are subject to substantial revision. There is no better example than August’s jobs figure, which was initially reported at zero and in the latest revision increased to 104,000. This illustrates why the Administration always stresses it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/11/04/employment-situation-october)

September 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/10/07/employment-situation-september)

August 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/09/02/employment-situation-august)

July 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/05/employment-situation-july)

June 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/08/employment-situation-june)

May 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/06/03/employment-situation-may)

April 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/05/06/employment-situation-april)

March 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/04/01/employment-situation-march)

February 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/03/04/employment-situation-february)

January 2011: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/02/04/employment-situation-january)

December 2010: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/01/07/employment-situation-december)

November 2010: “Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/12/03/employment-situation-november)

October 2010: “Given the volatility in monthly employment and unemployment data, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/11/05/employment-situation-october)

September 2010: “Given the volatility in the monthly employment and unemployment data, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/10/08/employment-situation-september)

July 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.  It is essential that we continue our efforts to move in the right direction and replace job losses with robust job gains.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/08/06/employment-situation-july)

August 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/09/03/employment-situation-august)

June 2010: “As always, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/07/02/employment-situation-june)

May 2010: “As always, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/06/04/employment-situation-may)

April 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/05/07/employment-situation-april)

March 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/04/02/employment-situation-march)

January 2010: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/02/05/employment-situation-january)

November 2009: “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative.” (LINK: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2009/12/04/employment-situation-november)



It’s Not Obama’s Fault, It’s Not Obama’s Fault. Yes it is. by The Elephant's Child

June 2012 Jobs Report: Expected to be a weak 95,000  new jobs, but was only an official 80,000 new jobs. Official unemployment rate remains at 8.2 percent.

Obama: The jobs report is a” step in the right direction.” “Don’t read too much into it.

Official White House Statement: Blames June’s weak jobs report on “the damage from the financial crisis” and “problems that we face were more than a decade in the making.”

Unemployed Persons: 12.7 million, unchanged in June.

Unemployment rate for Blacks: 14.4 percent, up from 13.6 in May.

Unemployment rate for Hispanics: 11.0 percent.

Unemployment rate for Asians: 6.3 percent.

Total Unemployed: 14.9 percent (U-6 rate)The Recession Ended June 2009 = total employed + marginally attached( those neither working or looking but want jobs) + total unemployed part-time (but want and are available for full-time work).

Unemployment rate for teenagers:  23.0 percent.

More workers joined the federal government’s disability program in June than got new jobs. The disability ranks have outpaced job growth throughout Obama’s recovery. The economy has created 2.6 million jobs since June 2009, fully 3.1 million workers signed up for disability benefits.

The unemployment rate, which is calculated as a percentage of the labor force, which at 63.8 percent participation  is near a 40-year low. This is the weakest growth and employment at this stage of a recovery since World War II.

Mr. Obama claimed again on Friday that it’s all because Congress won’t pass his jobs plan. The first stimulus was supposed to have the jobless rate under 6 percent. Unemployment has topped 8 percent for 41 straight months. Before that the last time unemployment was as high as 8 percent was in December 1983.

Vice President Joe Biden said on Tuesday to a National Education Association conference that big government spending strengthens the economy, not the private sector. “We believe that the way to build this country is the way we always have, from the middle out…[to] invest in things that have always made our economy grow; innovation, research, development, infrastructure and education.”

President Obama, at campaign stops, is telling his audience (sarcastically), that the other side says we would be better doing nothing, and encouraging a big laugh from his supporters. But, it’s true.  The free market economy wants to recover from a crisis in the business cycle.  Left alone, and Obama has certainly not left the economy alone, but poked and prodded in every misguided direction.

Sure that problems in the economy are due to a lack of proper regulation from the brighter people; the administration has been regulating everything in sight. Since the regulators are seldom as bright as the regulated; this just makes the economy nervous, for businessmen don’t know what will come down next.

To add to the uncertainty, you have ObamaCare. Businessmen don’t know what will happen, what the rules will be, nor how much it will cost. Regulators just added 13,000 pages of new ObamaCare tax regulations.  If that is not enough, add on Taxamageddon — the largest tax increase in the history of the world, descending on January 1, 2013. Then you have the example of Gibson Guitars, a law-abiding company, peacefully building popular guitars, or dozens of other companies grabbed under unknown regulations suddenly enforced for the first time. Or, the administration simply decides to put certain industries out of business like anything connected to coal, or makers of cigarette papers for hand-rolled cigarettes, or independent car dealers—or any number of other things. You may be next.

Sorry, Mr. Obama, but the economy really would be better off—way better off, if you would just stop. If you want to fix things, cut way back on the spending.  Eliminate regulations. The free market will tell business when their business plan is not working: see Solyndra, a whole raft of other energy businesses, and just this last week Abound Solar and Nevada Geothermal Power have filed for bankruptcy. And then there’s the Volt.

This chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank sort of questions the validity of Obama’s request that he’s really fixing things and he just needs another term. (Click to enlarge)




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