American Elephants


Point by Point Climate Talking Points: Climate Truth File 2014 by The Elephant's Child

Do you find yourself arguing with true believers in environmental panic? Are you taken aback when Secretary of State John Kerry pronounces, as he did this week, that there is no link between Islam and extremism as practiced by the likes of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL/Daesh) pointing instead to factors such as poverty among youthful Mideast populations, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and climate change. (emphasis added)

And that brings us to something like climate change, which is profoundly having an impact in various parts of the world, where droughts are occurring not at a 100-year level but at a 500-year level in places that they haven’t occurred, floods of massive proportions, diminishment of water for crops and agriculture at a time where we need to be talking about sustainable food.

Here’s a pretty fair summary of the arguments, which you might want to print out and keep handy, for encounters with relatives, or members of the State Department. Or visit Watts Up With That and Climate Depot regularly. They tackle the climatista craziness regularly: “Climate Change Shrinks Goats?”, ” U. of Arizona Professor: Climate change now ‘irreversible’—Humans must ‘terminate industrial civilization



Here’s Some Good News For a Change! by The Elephant's Child

The price of crude oil is tumbling downward towards $80 per barrel. The Brent crude price of $82.60 is the cheapest since 2010.”On October 1, Saudi Arabia’s  national oil company announced that it had abandoned a policy of price protection and would start to focus on protecting its market share. Combined with falling global demand and rising supplies elsewhere, oil prices have fallen accordingly.

Natural gas supplies are plentiful and warm weather so far means weak demand, which means lower costs for natural gas.

For our fracking, the break-even price is around $50-$70 bbl. Supply is bulging. Gasoline prices will come down, transportation prices will come down, which means that costs at the grocery store will ease.

States like Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq can only balance their budgets at oil prices ranging from $110 to $135 per barrel. This is good. If oil prices stay below $90 per barrel for any length of time, there will be real financial squeezes, and even regime change in Iran, Bahrain, Ecuador, Venezuela, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq or Libya and would give Vladimir Putin some real trouble. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

It’s not clear what Saudi Arabia is up to, but they are definitely not approving of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, nor of ISIS’ ambitions either. They may be just protecting their market share, as we are close to surpassing them in production.

If we start exporting natural gas to Europe, that would relax the strangle hold Russia holds over their energy supplies.

It’s good news, just when we need some.



Pipelines, Fundraisers and Campaign Cash. Canada’s Had Enough. by The Elephant's Child

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The Obama administration has been holding up for six long years, any real decision on the Keystone XL Pipeline that would bring oil from the oil sands of Alberta to Gulf Coast refineries. Approving the project would have provided 20,000 well-paying  construction jobs, boosted the economy and helped to lower the price of oil on the world market, and reduce the influence of Russia and OPEC  in world affairs. The whole project was a huge win-win for both the United States and Canada.

Well, Canada has had just about enough. They are in the process of developing alternatives —one of which is a 2,900 mile pipeline that would carry a million barrels of oil a day from the oil sands region to the ice-free port of St. John, New Brunswick on the Bay of Fundy. There it would be refined and then shipped to customers around the world on supertankers. The Energy East Pipeline is a $10+billion (US dollar)project where an existing oil superport and refinery could export that oil to world markets, including India which is hungry for more energy.

Canada has already approved their Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline to Kitimaat British Columbia, a 1177 kilometer pipeline. That one is waiting approval from the many First Nation tribes that it would cross. There is also a 710 mi long Trans Mountain pipeline system operated by Kinder Morgan Energy Partners running from Edmonton, Alberta to terminals and refineries in British Columbia, Vancouver and the Puget Sound region in Washington. Kinder Morgan says expanding the existing pipeline, which they want to do by twelve times, is cheaper than Northern Gateway.

It is hard to over emphasize how annoyed the Canadians are over our failure to proceed on a mutually beneficial project because Obama wants campaign money from wealthy ideologues. Reuters says Canadian crude exports to the United States topped three million barrels per day last week. Much of this oil is moving by rail. Without a pipeline to a refinery and supertanker port, the U.S. is virtually Canada’s only buyer. Canadians are subject to price discounts of as much as $43 a barrel that cost Canada something like $20 billion a year.

The White House’s blockade of the Keystone XL hasn’t stopped domestic Fracking or development of Alberta oil sands. Instead, the industry transports oil and natural gas with 19th century technology — rail. Seven out of every ten barrels from North Dakota’s Baaken shale move by rail, and total carloads of crude have increased 4000% since 2008.

So naturally the president’s regulators are looking at the dangers of trains. The 2003 Lac-Mégantic oil explosion killed 47 people and destroyed parts of the Quebec town, an agency called the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is imposing new rail tank car design standards. Within three years, most of the 334,869 cars in the North American fleet must be retrofitted with thicker steel jackets, heat shields, better brakes and so on. Regulators, of course, claim to be acting in the name of rail safety, but according to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) 99.9977% of potentially dangerous cargo arrives without incident.

Hardening of tank cars might prevent 0.0023% of accidents. Most (88%) of derailments are the result of cracked, split or washed-out tracks and welding. The need is for more track maintenance and inspection. The other major cause of derailment is human error. The real motive seems to be to force tens of thousands of tanker rail cars off the rails and slow the oil and gas development to which the enviros object.

Bloomberg has a long and fascinating article on Canada’s efforts to solve Obama’s intransigence over the Keystone XL, and their own need to bring their mother lode of crude oil to market. With one project, Energy East will give Alberta’s oil sands not only an outlet to eastern Canadian markets, but to global markets. Canadian oil and government interests feel they’re being played by Obama as he sweeps aside a long understood “special relationship” between the world’s two biggest trading partners to score political points with environmental supporters at home. (The Bloomberg piece includes maps that explain the pipelines).

It’s clear that his will be a huge benefit for Canada. The projects span the whole country, uniting Western oilfields with coastal shipping. The Keystone XL may still be built sometime, but failure to deal with our close friend and neighbor to the north in a timely and honest manner has deeply damaged a longstanding relationship and we missed out on jobs and economic growth for the sake of Democrat politics.



That Missing Global Warming Isn’t Hiding In The Oceans After All! by The Elephant's Child

Anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming has always been right up the Left’s view of the world and humanity. We are bad people , despoiling the earth, and it has to be fixed. I think of the Left as the “perpetually discontented.” But when the wise experts in government get the right laws and the right regulations in place, we will have sustainability, and world peace, and greedy rapacious corporations in search of profit will no longer be able to destroy nature, and social justice will reign over all.

It has now been a full 18 years with no global warming. None. That is an unacceptable idea for the Left, and the causes of warming and what warming has caused continue to occupy the green mind. If the warming is missing, where has it gone? What is going on?

The theory was that the “missing heat” is supposedly hiding in the deep oceans. Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) told National Geographic in February that:

“Strong trade winds are bringing cooler water to the surface in the equatorial Pacific and mixing more heat into the deeper ocean.”

This meant, National Geographic helpfully summarized, that “the missing heat from global warming is being stored in a deeper warm pool in the western Pacific.”

Kevin Trenberth, father of the deep ocean hidey-hole for missing heat theory, spoke last year to Bloomberg:

In fact, there is mounting evidence that deeper regions of the ocean, down to 2000 meters, are absorbing heat faster than ever, Trenberth said in a phone call. His research shows the oceans began taking on significantly more heat at around the same time the surface warming began to slow in 1998. His widely cited work was published just after the cutoff to be included in the IPCC report.

The irony, says Trenberth, is that when the surface of the planet is unusually sweltering, the Earth actually radiates more heat into the atmosphere, in effect slowing the long-term warming of the planet. And in “hiatus” years, when the surface is cooler, the Earth absorbs more of the sun’s heat deep the oceans, slowly cooking the planet. What you see isn’t always what you get.

Nice try. A new study from a NASA research team, “using a combination of satellite observations and direct measurements taken by a network of 3,000 floating Argo temperature probes, the NASA team set out to calculate temperature changes and thermal expansion in the deep ocean (below 1.24 miles).” It finds that the deep oceans have not warmed since 2005.

James Delingpole explains:

What has happened here, in other words, is that for years the warmists have been fobbing off their teachers with the excuse that “the dog ate their homework.” But it simply won’t wash any more because the teacher has now discovered that they don’t actually own a dog.



Back to Bardarbunga, Up Close and Personal: by The Elephant's Child

We wrote  about a month ago about the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland that was erupting beneath the 1300 foot deep ice, and wondering how long it would take for the lava to break through.

This video demonstrates that a guy with a quadcopter managed to get very, very close to an erupting Icelandic volcano — close enough to melt the face of the camera that shot the video. Eric Cheng, director of aerial imaging for drone maker DJI joined photographer Ragnar Th Sigurdsson to send a drone over the eruption. It took proper permits and connections with the local authorities to get close enough to send a drone, and Sigurdsson had the permits and connections.

“Iceland is the only place on the globe where a mid-ocean ridge — the seams in the Earth’s crust that pull apart, bringing molten magma to the surface to produce more crust — rises onto dry land. It’s an incredible view of one of the most important and impressive geologic processes on the planet.”

And how exciting to be able to sit with your computer and be able to watch that geologic process — safely at home, thanks to Wired. Here’s the drone:

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Down With Capitalism: The Glorious Socialist Future Is Here! by The Elephant's Child

China-pollution-factories

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China Climate Change

A Chinese worker on a boat tries to clea

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It’s always a good idea to take a hard look at what you think you are wishing for. Sometimes you’re just caught up in a romantic fantasy, and the reality isn’t quite so…… optimistic.



They Came, They Marched — A Useless Event. by The Elephant's Child

There is nothing that the”Greenies” could do that demonstrates so effectively the absolute bankruptcy of their cause, than the big Climate March Sunday. The celebrities arrive on their private jets, and attract the appropriate media attention. Leo DiCaprio, departing from his rented billionaire’s yacht arrived to march behind the signs deploring capitalism and consumerism.

He got a big caregal-green8-jpger boost with a Vanity Fair cover purporting to save polar bears from global warming back in 2007. DiCaprio was photographed in Iceland, and a shot of  the adorable polar bear cub ‘Knut’, born in captivity in the Berlin Zoo, was stripped in. It was the “Green Issue.” and loads of free publicity for DiCaprio.

Well, Knut died young in Berlin.  Polar bears turned out not only not to be endangered, but to be dramatically increasing in numbers and to have managed the slight warming and cooling of the climate with no problem at all. Having been publicized as an environmental activist, DiCaprio has to turn up for marches.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was busted in 1984 for  heroin possession, and sentenced to 800 hours of community service, which he worked off by volunteering at the Hudson River Foundation, which introduced him to the possibilities of environmentalism. He copyrighted the name Waterkeeper, and collected funds from the many environmental groups with “keeper” as part of their name.

He collected an array of trial lawyer firms who had experience in lawsuits against tobacco companies, to sue giant pork producers and processors. Each of the law firms committed itself to an initial ‘ante’ of $50,000 to work with Kennedy. The idea was to monitor cases where even the tiniest amount of material from pork producers or processors might contaminate a river, stream, lake , bay or coastline. Kennedy would use his celebrity status to publicize these cases and alleged risks to human health. He estimated the potential “damages” that could be collected from the pork industry at somewhere between 9 and 13 billion dollars, a large portion of which the trial lawyers would rake off for themselves.

They have also gone after Bayer pharmaceuticals for the purported downstream impact of its livestock antibiotic Baytril. They allege that residues of the prescription drug pass through animals and into rivers and groundwater. They only need to find a sympathetic judge and jury. Riverkeeper says:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s reputation as a resolute defender of the environment stems from a litany of successful legal actions. Mr. Kennedy was named one of Time magazine’s “Heroes for the Planet” for his success helping Riverkeeper lead the fight to restore the Hudson River. The group’s achievement helped spawn over 185 Waterkeeper organizations across the globe.

The marchers were opposed to “fracking,” the Keystone XL pipeline, carbon dioxide, fossil fuels of any kind, the rise of the oceans, global warming,  and extreme weather. They inexplicably favored Socialism as the answer c762259a-437c-4fc9-9cf2-85cbd1b690d5-460x276— but China doesn’t seem to have found an answer yet. Even more, their arguments are failing, one after another.

The National Science Foundation has just given ‘Fracking” a clean bill of health.  The extent of ice in the Antarctic keeps setting new all-time records, one after another. “Extinct species” turn out not to be extinct after all. Carbon dioxide is a natural fertilizer for plants and helps them to grow and survive drought. The amount of CO² in the atmosphere keeps growing, but the planet hasn’t warmed in the slightest for nearly 18 years. (But the children!) The ocean is rising in millimeters, not inches or feet.

The alarmist cause has meant that a dusty corner of science —climatology— has moved to center stage in the western world with grants and investment in labs, and climate meetings in some of the world’s nicest resorts, fame and recognition. There are enormous fortunes being made on the issue of climate alarmism. Aside from such notable cases as Al Gore and Tom Steyer, look at the money made from renewable energy, from ethanol, from biofuels — because politicians afraid of not supporting environmentalism — spend billions to fix things and the politically connected line up for government largesse. (But consensus!)

Add in electric cars, wind farms that have just received a free 30-year pass from the federal government for killing endangered eagles. Some are afraid they may make the species extinct. Wind produces electricity only when the wind blows at the right speed, which is not anywhere near constantly. A wind turbine must have 24/7 backup from a conventional power plant for all the times the wind isn’t blowing at the right speed. Turbines and wind die down in the winter. Solar arrays produce energy only when the sun is shining. (Clouds, night) And also require 24/7 backup from a conventional power plant. (But 97%)

It was all — just embarrassing.

The chants echoed through the skyscraper canyons, the drums rolled, participants were caught up in a sense of unity and togetherness that some of them had never known. It was almost like politics, almost like the epochal marches that have toppled governments and changed history ever since the Paris mob stormed the Bastille.

Almost. Except street marches today are to real politics what street mime is to Shakespeare. This was an ersatz event: no laws will change, no political balance will tip, no UN delegate will have a change of heart. The world will roll on as if this march had never happened.




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