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Renowned Astrophysicist Murry Salby Takes On Cult Science by The Elephant's Child

Climate “Model World” Diverges Starkly from “Real World”

The world-renowned astrophysicist Professor Murry Salby of Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia made a presentation in Hamburg, Germany at Helmut Schmidt University on April 18, as part of a European tour.

Professor Salby is the author of the textbook Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate (Cambridge University Press) and Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics (Academic Press).

He recently caused excitement with new findings on the relationship of the 12C-and 13C isotopes and the development of CO2-concentration. From the findings he concluded that the anthropogenic emissions only had a slight impact on the global CO2-concentrations. They are mainly a consequence of temperature changes. This relationship is known up to now only from the warming phases after the last ice ages. Professor Salby extends this relationship to our current climate development. (From Die kalte Sonne)

Most of the presentation is very mathematical and technical. But the last 10 minutes sum up everything very nicely for laypersons.

At the 1:04:05 mark he sums it up neatly:

CO2 then evolves not like temperature, as it does in the model, but like the integral of temperature. In dotted blue is the integral of observed temperature. It closely tracks observed CO2 — even after the 1990s when the observed record of CO2 and temperature clearly diverged. If CO2 tracks the integral of temperature, which it clearly does, it cannot track temperature, which it clearly doesn’t.

In the model, CO2 and temperature are related directly. In the real world they are also related, but differently. The distinctly different relationship between CO2 and global temperature represents a fundamental difference its evolution in the model world and the real world. If the global energy balance is wrong, everything else is window dressing.

—”In the Real World global temperature is not controlled exclusively by CO2, as it is in the Model World.

—In significant part, however, CO2 is controlled by Global Temperature, as it is in the Proxy Record.”

At the end of his presentation, Salby implies, quoting Richard Feynman, that CO2 science today can be described as “Cult Science.”

He sums up, quoting Feynman: “If it differs from observations, then it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.”

______________________

And yesterday from the “Cult Science ” bunch, this wonderful piece:

“It’s Too Late: Fight Against Climate Change Has Failed”

Dana Milbank, of the Washington Post, ventures forth to explain how it’s all over. The flood walls to protect downtown Washington from a rising Potomac River have never been finished.  The fight against climate change, the cause celebre of the environmental movement for more than a decade, has failed in its primary purpose. In the race to prevent disaster, it’s already too late.

Among climate-change activists, the realization is spreading that the combination of political inaction on greenhouse gases, plentiful new petroleum supplies and accelerating changes in weather patterns means there is no escaping more life-altering floods, droughts and fires. Although ongoing efforts to reduce carbon emissions could mitigate even worse catastrophe, momentum has shifted in part to preparing for the inevitable consequences of a warmer planet.

Mayor Bloomberg rolled out a $19.5 billion plan Tuesday “to prepare for the impacts of a changing climate. By midcentury, up to  a quarter of all New York City’s land area, where 800,000 residents live today will be in the flood plain, and 40 miles of our waterfront could see flooding on a regular basis just during normal high tides.”

Do read the whole thing. This is Cult Science at its best. These people can never grasp the difference between weather and climate.


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