American Elephants

Big Lies, Little Lies, Made Up Numbers, Phony Projections, and Meaningless Statistics. by The Elephant's Child
February 20, 2014, 8:42 pm
Filed under: Politics | Tags: , ,


This is how it works.The Los Angeles Times, the left-coast cousin of the New York Times, had a headline yesterday, in their SCIENCE NOW section that stated positively “Climate change brings more crime.”

They explain: A new study broadens a notion held by criminologists. “Periods of higher temperatures — on an hour-by-hour or week-to-week basis— are likely to produce more crime. The study suggests global warming will trigger more crimes including murders and rapes over the next century, with social costs estimated to run as high as $115 billion.”

Between 2010 and 2099, climate change can be expected to cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft, the study published this week in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management says.

Compared with the number of crimes expected to occur during this period in the absence of climate change, these figures represent a 2.2% increase in murders, a 3.1% increase in cases of rape, a 2.3% increase in aggravated assaults, a 1.2% increase in simple assaults, a 1% increase in robberies, a 0.9% increase in burglaries, a 0.5% increase in cases of larceny and a 0.8% increase in cases of vehicle theft, the study says.

There has been no warming, none, zilch, for 17 years. The sun has gone quiet. Much as we would like to, we cannot predict the future. We don’t know if we are entering a new ice age. We do know that meteorologists, those folks who have made a profession of studying weather patterns, and tell us what to expect for tomorrow on the nightly news, can’t forecast beyond a week out.

The climate scientists who have attempted to duplicate the world climate in computerized climate programs are constrained by the fact that we just don’t understand very much about how climate works. We know, for example that clouds are important in the process, but we don’t know how much and just how. Anyone who has lain on the grass in the summer, watching clouds, understands the problems. There are all different kinds of clouds, and they move. The wind is different at different levels and one level of clouds may be moving to the East while another level is moving West. Some levels move fast, others don’t.

When you get a study that is projecting out to 2099, with nice round numbers of burglaries and assaults, you can be confident that the numbers are made up and accompanied by a dog and pony show designed to show the importance of the study and the amazing smarts of the company receiving a humongous check for their services. “An immediate and permanent 4% increase in the size of the U.S. police force would be required to offset the aggregate climate-related increases in murder, manslaughter, robbery, burglary and vehicle theft likely to occur over the next century.” My family always used a term left over from horse-and-buggy days. They called it, politely, “road apples.”

The scary thing is that this is how our government operates. The EPA will tell you exactly how many children will die from asthma over the next 20—50 years. They make up the numbers, because Congress is impressed by numbers, and “the study” sounds much more impressive bolstered by numbers. Our president is quite comfortable making up numbers to lull his audience, as ObamaCare should have taught you by now. The Federal Government floats on a sea of paper, most of it including made up facts, estimated effects, and completely phony numbers.

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