American Elephants

About That Big Jump In GDP Numbers: Another Lie. by The Elephant's Child

Headline, Politico: “Everything Is Awesome!” December 24th

Good news! The U.S. economy grew at a rollicking 5 percent rate in the third quarter. Oh, and it added 320,000 jobs in November, the best of its unprecedented 57 straight months of private-sector employment growth. Just in time for Christmas, the Dow just hit an all-time high and the uninsured rate is approaching an all-time low. Consumer confidence is soaring, inflation is low, gas prices are plunging, and the budget deficit is shrinking. You no longer hear much about the Ebola crisis that dominated the headlines in the fall, much less the border crisis that dominated the headlines over the summer.

Headline, Center for Immigration Studies: “Despite Recent Job Growth, Native Employment Still Below 2007:  BLS Data show all net employment growth has gone to immigrants.

President Obama recently announced plans to give legal status and work permits to millions of illegal immigrants. Many members of Congress and the president continue to support efforts to increase the level of immigration, such as Senate bill S.744 that passed that chamber last year. Yet data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on its website (see Table A-7) show that all of the net gain in employment since 2007 has gone to immigrants (legal and illegal), also referred to as the foreign-born.1 Native employment has still not returned to pre-recession levels, while immigrant employment already exceeds pre-recession levels. Furthermore, even with recent job growth, the number of natives not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work) continues to increase.

Headline: Daily Caller: “Fewer US-Born Americans Have Jobs Now Than in 2007″ Dec. 19, 2014

The amazing drop in employment highlights President Barack Obama’s slow recovery from the deep 2008 shock, but also spotlights many companies’ growing reliance on foreign migrant labor.
Almost one in every two jobs added since 2009 have gone to foreign-born workers.

Headline: Powerline:“About That 5% GDP Growth” Dec 26.2014

Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge takes a closer look at the data, and recalls a prediction he made at the end of the first quarter:

Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex. But the real surprise was that the Obamacare boost was, in the final print, revised massively lower to actually reduce GDP!

Fast forward to today when as every pundit is happy to report, the final estimate of Q3 GDP indeed rose by 5% (no really, just as we predicted), with a surge in personal consumption being the main driver of US growth in the June-September quarter.

But no: the “personal consumption” that drove the supposed economic boom in the third quarter was the increased cost of Obamacare, spending that had been moved from the first quarter to make the third quarter look better: (emphasis added)

Smoke and mirrors. We have learned that we cannot believe anything Obama says. We cannot believe the IRS, the VA, HHS, EPA, or most other federal agencies, and now we cannot believe the BEA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Told that personal consumption was way up in 3rd Quarter, and expected to be over 5% in the 4th Quarter, we discover that it was not a more confident public, encouraged by the drop in the price of gasoline, stepping up their buying because employment was rising. It was the BEA manipulating the statistics to make Obama look good. And can you really call the ObamaCare costs you are forced to pay with penalties, and/ or subsidies, for not paying “personal consumption?”

Calling jobs that go to legal and illegal new immigrants while ordinary Americans drop out of the Labor market, too discouraged to keep looking for work is not really a positive development, no matter in what carefully chosen dialogue you portray it.

Do read the linked articles. There are graphs to emphasize reality. And you might enjoy one more linked post from David Harsanyi: “Let’s Talk About Obama’s Imaginary ‘Winning Streak.’


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[…] big claim was about the big jump in GDP growth in the fourth quarter to 5%. Finally, the press announced, the Recovery! Except that […]


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