American Elephants

The Sierra Club Embarrasses Itself! by The Elephant's Child

There was a time when the Sierra Club was a positive environmental club, doing what they could to protect the Sierra Nevada mountains and encourage the millions of people who wanted to use the mountains for recreation and exploration to think environmentally. We had friends who took pack trips with the club, exploring during the day and at nightfall the pack horses would appear with food and a set up camp. Great summer vacation.

The Sierra Club turned radical green some years ago, and now is just another crony-capitalist bunch, throwing their weight behind leftist programs like opposition to coal, opposition to the Keystone pipeline, and ill-informed scare-mongering to raise money to ‘stop’ global warming, and whatever is fashionable on the green agenda at the moment. There are enormous amounts of money involved.

Sierra Club President Aaron Mair in this hearing demonstrates the position perfectly. The science has been decided, there can be no debate since we are right because 97% of all science says we’re right, so just shut up and don’t question our superior wisdom.

The 97% “consensus” study, Cook et al. (2013) has been thoroughly refuted in scholarly peer-reviewed journals, by major news media, public policy organizations and think tanks, highly credentialed scientists and extensively in the climate blogosphere. The shoddy methodology of Cook’s study has been shown to be so fatally flawed that well known climate scientists have publicly spoken out against it.

There is no such thing as “consensus” in Science. That means everybody agrees. Even if 99% of all scientists agree that something is so, a lonely scientist working in his garage can prove them all wrong. Science is what is proved over and over by observation, not what flawed computer models predict.

Until the panic about the coming catastrophe of rising seas and a steadily warming planet appeared in the press, climate science was a rather dusty corner in most universities. When the climate became scary, and advantageous for congress to do something, grants (significantly big ones) became readily available for anyone who could write a good grant proposal demonstrating how their interest in tree rings could contribute to solving the problems of the drastic warming of a small percentage of a degree, if the granter just gave then enough money for an enlarged department, new equipment, and a few new assistants.

Don’t forget, Climate Change is now a $1.5 trillion industry!

Independent, Free, and Self-Directed, Or the Democrat’s Gulag? by The Elephant's Child

At Real Clear Politics (the Real Clear Policy sector) Sherzod Abdukadirov writes about “How Uncle Sam Uses Behavioral Science,” in Mr. Obama’s “executive order urging federal agencies to use behavioral science insights in designing government policies and regulations. The order argues that such insights have the potential to improve consumer welfare through better policy design.”

I wrote about this week or so ago, but I find I’m not ready to leave the subject. It’s straight out of the Marxist playbook, and you can talk about ‘nudges’ or ‘behavioral experiments’, but it’s just plain propaganda designed to make you do what the government wants you to do. No “consumer welfare” about it. If at first they don’t succeed, they will try a little harder.

The example used in Sherzod’s piece is from the Energy Department, with their “Energy Star” appliances. They boast about consumer savings which are supposed to justify the higher price of the appliances.

Unfortunately, the evidence marshaled by the agency for consumer myopia is highly dubious. For example, the latest standard for residential dishwashers promises consumers a savings of $3 over 15 years — it takes twelve years just to cover the higher up-front price — while the standard for clothes dryers delivers $14 in savings over 16 years, with the higher price covered after five years.

That DOE would declare consumers irrational for not chasing trivial, long-term savings defies common sense. And when one considers the fact that another objective for energy-efficiency regulations is to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, it becomes clear that the agency’s motivation may have less to do with improving consumer welfare and more to do with hitting its environmental goals. The use of behavioral insights in policy opens the door for agencies to impose more stringent regulations that aim to advance the administration’s agenda rather than consumer welfare.

This is why everything that the EPA does to take further control of your life and options is cloaked in preventing childhood asthma. Or the noxious twisty lightbulbs or their expensive counterparts. Consider a federal department and you can probably come up with something intended to shut down your options and force you to do something you don’t want to do. Consider ObamaCare.

The Left wants control. They don’t want you to have the option of free speech if it disagrees with them. Obama just said that you couldn’t have freedom of religion if it opposes gay marriage. The federal government will put restrictors in your shower head so you don’t use too much water. Just think of what the feds have done to make driving a car more expensive.

Conservatives talk about freedom, but perhaps that is too broad a term. What we are really talking about is autonomy: the quality or state of being independent, free, and self-directing.  It’s the capacity of a rational individual to make an informed, un-coerced decision. Take away our autonomy and welcome to the Gulag.

The Department of Energy believes that paying more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a public good. We would suggest that the Department of Energy has not studied the science of carbon dioxide. The Department of Agriculture has ordered that we enrich factory farms by putting the corn crop in our gas tanks. Mrs. Obama has ordered that small school children eat what she tells them to, but because even little children prize their autonomy, they throw the food in the garbage.

Both Barack and Michelle Obama became lawyers. How can you study law in the United States of America and fail to understand the importance of freedom and autonomy? Did they never read the whole Declaration of Independence and the Constitution and not understand what it was about? Obama announced early on that the law was about empathy. And he has repeated that many times, emphasizing how important empathy is to him. Take another look at Dierdre McCloskey’s graph, and what personal autonomy has meant to America.

The Illusions of Green Energy by The Elephant's Child best places for wind turbines have already been used. To supply the United States with energy from wind power would take a wind farm the size of Texas with densely sited turbines, but there’s not windy places for the turbines everywhere. A turbine requires wind blowing at a certain speed to produce power. If it blows too hard, the turbines have to shut down for they could be damaged. If it blows too gently, they do not produce energy at all , the backup power station which has been running all the time has to take over the production of energy.

I frequently say that the great fault of wind power is that wind is too intermittent. It just doesn’t blow at a steady strength at all, but you have been out in the wind, and you know that.
part-1-fig-11-1024x6611 Here is a graph of electricity production as a percent of wind capacity. I think this one is from Bonneville Power, but I just saved the graph, not the source. Assume that the correct speed for producing electricity from these turbines is at the 50% mark. The power plant operating on natural gas is chugging away, and whenever the wind drops below 50% the gas takes over. So to however much the energy produced by the turbines costs, you have to add in the cost of the natural gas fired power plant.

The Obama administration is eager to shut down any coal-fired power plants to eliminate the CO2 that might go into the atmosphere to fertilize the plants of the earth and enhance our food supply, might add to the tiny bit of CO2 in the atmosphere and cause the earth to warm uncontrollably, although the amount is almost too small to be measured, and there has been no warming at all for eighteen years and eight months. Here’s a bit of reality.


Up until very recently our coal-fired power plants were producing over 40 percent of our electricity. Obama, persuaded that an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere would cause the oceans to rise and the earth to boil,  set about shutting down coal-fired power plants, which will accomplish nothing at all except to put more hundreds of workers out of a job. Oddly enough, as the big coal companies neared bankruptcy, thanks to Mr. Obama, George Soros popped up to buy a controlling interest in the big coal companies. You can figure out what that means on your own.

Everything is Connected, But That Doesn’t Mean You Can Make Sense of it by The Elephant's Child

saudi-arabia-oilFor those of us who have forgotten our history, 1973 was the year of the Yom Kippur War. Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israeli positions in territories occupied by Israel. In August, Saudi King Faisal and Egyptian president Anwar Sadat met in Riyadh and negotiated an accord whereby the Arabs would use the “oil weapon” as part of the coming military conflict.

October 6, Egypt and Syria attack Israeli-occupied lands in the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar. The Soviet Union acted to supply Egypt and Syria with weapons and supplies. (Notice that Russian interest in Syria is not new) October 8, Israel goes on full nuclear alert.

The United States initiates Operation Nickel Grass, a strategic airlift to provide replacement weapons and supplies to Israel. OPEC negotiations with the major oil companies to revise the 1971 Tehran price agreement fail. October 19, Congress appropriates $2.2 billion in emergency aid to Israel. Libya proclaims an embargo on oil exports to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and other Arab states follow suit the next day. October 26, the Yom Kippur War ends in complete defeat for the Arab forces. Dissension, negotiation. Israel agrees to withdraw from the west side of the Suez Canal. Oil ministers , with the exception of Libya, announce the end of the embargo. The 1973-74 stock market crash ends.

OPEC forced the oil companies to increase payments dramatically. Price of oil quadrupled to nearly $12 U.S. per barrel. The oil exporting countries got very wealthy. Gold faucets and fancy yachts.

The U.S initiated price controls. Out of that developed the 55 mph speed limit, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, The Department of Energy, and the National Energy Act of 1978. Ad campaign “Don’t be Fuelish,” compact cars, front wheel drive and 4-cylinder engines. Greater interest in “renewable energy.” Research in solar power and wind power. More emphasis on Mass transit. End of big cars with tail fins, welcome for the Volkswagen Beetle, rise of Japanese cars.

1978, Protests against Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Shah of Iran, wave of political unrest and violent clashes, Muslim fundamentalists seek a Muslim state, 1979, Shah leaves on vacation, never to return. One million Iranians march in support for exiled Ayatollah Khomeini. Ayatollah returns to Iran after 14 years of exile. Gasoline shortage, world oil glut. OPEC increases full 14.5 % increase in price. Iran takes western hostages. Jimmy Carter tried to rescue hostages, made a mess of it. Ronald Reagan succeeded Carter, hostages were released.

This is all more or less accurate, but perhaps gives a sense of the back and forth of cause and effect that got us where we are today, but not much sense of what to expect. The middle east still has vast oil wealth, but we are no longer dependent on their oil nor natural gas, but instead need approval to export our own plentiful supplies of oil and gas.

In the first years of the seventh century, when the Prophet Mohammad began his mission in Arabia, the whole of the Mediterranean was part of Christendom. A few decades after the death of the Prophet, his Arab followers burst out of the Arabian peninsula and attacked Persia and Byzantium. The Persian empire was conquered, then Syria, Palestine, Egypt and North Africa — and then Spain, and Sicily. It’s been going on ever since. The aim of the fanatics is to return to the pure Islam of the days of the Prophet. The aim of the West seems to be a colony on Mars.

A Little Good News for a Change by The Elephant's Child

green-7 by anild sud courtesy eyeTraffic in the Seattle area was impossible yesterday, due to e visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and aside from his entourage, there must have been hundreds of newspeople. The rest of us still have our ordinary errands, which became hours long instead of minutes. Should have stayed home.

On the East Coast they have the same problems because of the visit of the Pope. Today, a horrible traffic accident in Seattle between a tour bus and the Duck Bus  (another tourist enterprise), four people killed, forty-four taken to hospitals. It’s clearly time for some good news and Ronald Bailey at the Reason Foundation supplies it, from their latest magazine.

Paul Erlich, notorious spreader of gloom and doom, was deeply concerned with overpopulation, along with his wife biologist Anne Erlich in the March 2013 Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Not only overpopulation, but overconsumption of natural resources, but “global toxification” which has “exposed the human population to myriad subtle poisons.

Hasn’t happened, for the greening of the earth caused by the natural fertilization of plants from increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere means more food. Fewer people across the world are going hungry.

Most people think that the risk of dying from cancer is going up because of chemicals and pollution, but even as the number of man-made chemicals has increased, your risk of dying from cancer has been decreasing for more than 40 years. Age-adjusted rates of cancer have been dropping largely because fewer people are smoking,  more Americans are having colonoscopies, and cancers are being diagnosed and treated earlier.

The overall incidence of cancer has been falling by about 0.6 percent a year. Modern medicine has increased the five-year survival rates of cancer patients from 50 percent in the 1970s to 68 percent today. That means that in recent years about 100,000 people each year who would have died are alive today.

Although President George W. Bush has been widely criticized for the Medicare Drug program because of the program’s cost, it has saved a lot of lives by getting needed medications to seniors at prices they could afford. It is the only program that came in at less than the estimated cost because of the “donut hole” incentive that encouraged seniors to use generics when they were as effective as more expensive brand-name medicines. Democrats, who simply do not understand incentives, eliminated the incentive, so costs are higher now.

The Erlichs are still going on about overpopulation and shortage of food, but in most societies women with more education have fewer children. Given current age, sex and education trends world population will most likely peak at 9.6 billion by 2070 and then begin falling. If education levels are pursued more aggressively, would population could top out at 8.9 billion in 2060 before starting to drop. Increased economic opportunities, more education, longer lives, more liberty are all trends that reinforce each other and accelerate the trend of falling global fertility.

In 1950 the average yield in the U.S. for a acre of corn was 51 bushels which would support 5 people for a year.  Today, the yield from an acre of corn is 166 bushels that would supply enough calories to support 16 people for a year. (Since we are a rich country, we’re putting a lot of it in our gas tanks) In India the average is 42 bushels that would support 4 people and in Africa, the yield is an average 32 bushels per acre per year to feed just 3 people. With lots of room for improvement.

Much of the increase in our food supply can be attributed to advances in biotech crops.

The board of directors of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) the largest scientific organization in the United States has, on October 20, 2012 point-blank asserted that “contrary to popular misconceptions, GM crops are the most extensively tested crops ever added to our food supply. There are occasional claims that feeding GM foods to animals causes aberrations ranging from digestive disorders, to sterility tumors and premature death. Although such claims are often sensationalized and receive a great deal of media attention, none have stood up to rigorous scientific scrutiny.” The AAAS board concluded, “indeed, the science is quite clear: crop improvement by the modern molecular techniques of biotechnology is safe.”

The entire article is here, and offers some positive news for those who follow the IPPC’s version of fear about global warming as well.

We still have our worries about the economy, national security, wars and trials and tribulations, education, and the general messed-up state of humanity, but really, there is good news.

All Because of Democrat Talking Points! by The Elephant's Child

California Governor Jerry Brown, sometimes referred to as “Governor Moonbeam,”is at it again. He wants to control greenhouse gas emissions. That’s the climate change agenda of the country’s most prominent Democrats. They have pledged to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 80% by 2050. They’ve given this the clever slogan “80 by 50.”

Earlier this month, by just two votes the Assembly rejected SB32 which would have required the state to reach 80 by 50. Pushing the bill was the state’s Democratic leadership, the governor and  U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein. President Obama has repeatedly endorsed the plan as have all of the candidates for the Presidency except Jim Webb.

What, asks Robert Bryce of the Manhattan Institute, would this mean to real people, or the citizens of California? Residents of California would be asked to night1emit less carbon dioxide than do the current residents of North Korea. Surely you have seen the satellite pictures of North Korea at night. That one bright spot is undoubtedly Kim Jong Un’s palace.

Wind and s0lar energy cannot accomplish the desired reduction — they require vast acreages of land and 24/7 backup from a conventional power source.  Nuclear energy would do the trick, but Democrats and environmentalists are totally opposed to nuclear energy, and building nuclear energy plants is not cheap. Germany estimates that for them to reach the 80 by 50 target would cost another $1.3 trillion. For us it would be over $5 trillion.

That brings us to an interesting article from Phillip Rucker of the Washington Post. He asks if Democrats and Republicans are talking about the same country? Of course we are not. Democrats follow Democrat talking points. They all march to the same tune. They are interested in income inequality, although their policies do nothing to reduce it. They simply accept climate change as a crisis, not because they have ever looked into the science, but because they just accept Democrat talking points as gospel. They care desperately about workplace equality for women, although equal pay for equal jobs has been the law since 1963. Other than a campaign issue, they don’t pay any attention to the law anyway. Women in the White House are paid less for the same job, as are, I have read, women in Hillary’s campaign.

On climate change, I refer you to my previous post, about 20 scientists  asking that climate deniers be prosecuted for their beliefs. It turns out that the organization responsible for the letter to the President asking for skeptics to be prosecuted is almost entirely funded by U.S. taxpayers. Scientists with the Institute of Global Environment and Society gets millions from taxpayers, and the lead scientist gets a six-figure salary for part-time work.

On top of that, we have the Associated Press changing the language. The AP announced today that it will no longer use the terms “climate change deniers” or “climate change skeptics” to refer to “those who don’t believe the world is warming or don’t accept climate science.”

The wire service sets the style standard for many news organizations. They announced they will refer to “individuals who reject climate change” as “climate change doubters” or “those who reject mainstream climate science.”  Oh please! Could I possibly ask for a better demonstration of why I seldom pay attention to news from the Associated Press? The American people’s trust in Mass Media has returned to an all-time low at 40% who believe the news is reported fairly and accurately.

The scientists who do not accept the work of the IPCC, don’t accept it because it is not correct, and designed for a political point, not a scientific point. The earth is always warming and cooling as it has done for millions of years. We have had periods much warmer than today as the Medieval Warm Period when grapes grew in England, and the Vikings farmed in Iceland. It’s known as the finest climate ever, and led to the Renaissance. We have also had Ice Ages, and more recently the Little Ice Age in the 1800s.

Another day, another battle over whether of not climate change is a catastrophe. Representative Paul Gosar (R-AZ) has filed Articles of Impeachment against EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, with 20 other members of Congress because she committed perjury and made several false statements at multiple congressional hearings, and as a result is guilty of  high crimes and misdemeanors.

Do You Dare To Disagree? You Must Go To Jail! by The Elephant's Child

slide_272890_1944640_freeThey are panicking! Some climate people have bet the farm on a dangerously warming earth, and the need to instantly switch to clean natural energy so we aren’t polluting the world by burning nasty coal and using nasty gasoline and creating the CO2 in the atmosphere that is causing all the trouble. It’s our fault. But we are promised a colder winter, the claims of a lack of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic are disproved by satellite photography. There’s millions and millions of subsidies and grants building wind farms and solar arrays, and they are still not producing much energy at all.

The science of global warming is so settled that 20 climate scientists have written to President Obama to ask him to prosecute the people who “have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change.” They want him to use the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) — a law enacted to take down organized crime syndicates. The 20 scientists repeated the claims made by radical green groups that those who have had the colossal nerve to disagree with them — have engaged in a misinformation campaign to confuse the public on global warming.

It is CO2, carbon dioxide produced by humans in their capitalist greed for money. Obama should be sympathetic, he claimed his election was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to halt and the earth began to heal. Activists have successfully pressured governments to declare CO2 a pollutant and to take drastic action to reduce the amount entering the atmosphere. And down with Capitalism too!

The folks at Heartland Institute have come up with an excellent mental exercise to explain about carbon dioxide. Picture a large football stadium that will hold about 10,000 people in the stands. Assume that each person in the stadium represents a small volume of one type of gas.

•Nitrogen (N2)  ………….. 78% of the Atmosphere……………….  7,800 people

•Oxygen (O2)    ………….. 21% of the Atmosphere………………… 2,100 people

•Argon (A))…………………….1% of the Atmosphere…………………   100 people

•Carbon Dioxide (CO2)0.038% of the Atmosphere………………….. 4 people

Carbon dioxide makes up only 4 parts in 10,0000. Historically low.
Approximately 2 % of the atmosphere is water vapor or clouds.

Moreover, those who name CO2 as a pollutant are not concerned with the 4 parts, but only with 1 part–the portion added during the past 150 years by the burning of fossil fuels. This 1/10,000 increase is the target of the Kyoto Protocol.

Remember high school biology and photosynthesis? After Nitrogen, Oxygen is the most common gas. The leaves of trees and other plants take in CO2 from the atmosphere, retaining the carbon for plant food, while releasing the O2 back into the atmosphere.

The present level of CO2 in the atmosphere is extremely low by historical standards. If atmospheric CO2 is significantly reduced, it is more likely that slower plant growth could affect world food supplies while having little effect on global warming. The life of all plants and animals on Earth is dependent on CO2 for food and oxygen.

Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It is the staff of life for our planet.

What if they find out? The EPA gets in big trouble, grants for climate studies vanish, wind farms go quiet and the turbines sit there rusting. The birds can fly free and not face being chopped up, and I don’t know what they do with the solar arrays. A lot of crony capitalists lose their subsidies and their shirts. And global warming skeptics don’t go to jail after all.


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