American Elephants


Hurricanes Are Not Caused By “Climate Change.” Just Nature At Work. by The Elephant's Child

President Trump was asked by “60 Minutes” Leslie Stahl about Hurricane Florence: He said:

“I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” … “I’m not denying climate change,” he said in the interview. “But it could very well go back. You know, we’re talking about over a … millions of years.”

“They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael,” said Trump, who identified “they” as “people” after being pressed by “60 Minutes” correspondent Leslie Stahl. She asked, “What about the scientists who say it’s worse than ever?” the president replied, “You’d have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda.

Well, you can imagine the outcry, Charles Schumer, distinguished Minority Leader of the United States Senate: “If we would do more on climate change, we’d have fewer of these hurricanes and other types of storms. Everyone knows that, except a few.” He added that The Trump administration has done nothing but “move the issue backward.”  Sorry, Senator. The president was actually scientifically, politically, and economically correct. Hurricanes are a natural phenomenon, unrelated to climate change.

“There is no trend in either intensity or frequency of hurricane strikes over the last 118 years. They have nothing to do with so called climate change. Out of the top 10 warmest Gulf of Mexico years since 1860, 7 occurred before 1970, which is before we experienced any significant warming”, according to Dr. Roy Spencer.

“So, all the “experts” can do is make vague claims about how major hurricanes like Michael are what we can expect more of in a warming world, but the data show that – so far at least – the data do not support the theory.”

The damage from Michael and Florence has been extensive, and to see so many houses flattened or disappeared is simply tragic, and the victims have our deepest sympathy. Federal aid and food and water start flowing in as rapidly as possible.

The Earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years “Global Warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warning. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work. …

But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s. (Do read the whole thing, not long)

The President is visiting Florida and Georgia today, and the first responders and volunteers are working in a massive Federal response:

Here’s a look at that response, by the numbers:

  • A major on-the-ground operation: More than 16,000 Federal employees, including over 8,000 military personnel, have been deployed.
  • Search-and-rescue efforts underway: FEMA, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the National Guard are working alongside state responders and volunteers. As of this morning, they have completed 110 evacuations, 4,193 rescues/assists, 15,287 shelter-in-place checks, 128 animal assists, and 16,827 structural assessments.
  • Power restoration a top priority: More than 35,000 utility workers from 26 states are working to bring power back to impacted areas.
  • Food and water distribution: In Florida, FEMA has provided 715,000 meals and 1.5 million liters of water per day. FEMA has also transferred more than 350,000 meals to Georgia, and 30+ distribution sites are being supported.

The response to Hurricane Michael is continuing. Thousands of industry workers are restoring power and volunteers are serving hot meals and providing shelter and comfort. Over the weekend the president issued a major disaster declaration for Georgia, and additional disaster assistance for Florida. FEMA Disaster Survivor Assistance teams are knocking on door to help families register for assistance.The President has called for maximum relief. When asked about his biggest priority for the trip, he said “Just making sure everyone is safe and that they’re fed.”

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Global Warming for the Two Cultures: Richard Lindzen by The Elephant's Child

The Global Warming Policy Foundation

The 2018 Annual GWPF Lecture
Global Warming for the Two Cultures”
8 October 2018
Richard Lindzen

…..Over half a century ago, C.P. Snow (a novelist and English physical chemist) who also served in several important positions in the British Civil Service and briefly in the UK government famously examined the implications of “two cultures:”
…..A good many times I have been present at gatherings of people who, by the standards of the traditional culture, are thought highly educated and who have with considerable gusto been expressing their incredulity at the illiteracy of scientists. Once or twice I have been provoked and have asked the company how many of them could describe the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The response was cold’ it was also negative. Yet I was asking something which id the scientific equivalent of :Have you read a work of Shakespeare’s?
…..I now believe that if I had asked an even simpler question –such as. What do you mean by mass, or acceleration, which is the scientific equivalent of saying Can you read? – not more than one in ten of the highly educated would have felt that I was speaking the same language. So the great edifice of modern physics goes up, and the majority of the cleverest people in the western world have about as much insight into it as their Neolithic ancestors would have had.
…..I fear that little has changed since Snow’s assessment 60 years ago. While some might maintain that ignorance of physics does not impact political ability, it most certainly  impacts the ability of non-scientists to deal with nominally science-based issues. The gap in understanding is also an invitation to malicious exploitation. Given the democratic necessity for non-scientists to take positions on scientific problems, belief and faith inevitably replace understanding, though trivially oversimplified false narratives serve to reassure the non-scientists that they are not totally without scientific ‘understanding.’ The issue of global warming offers numerous examples of all of this.
…..I would like to begin this lecture with an attempt to force the scientists in the audience to come to grips with the actual nature of the climate system, and to help the motivated non-scientists in this audience who may be in Snow’s ‘one in ten’ to move beyond the trivial oversimplifications.
The climate system
The rest of Dr. Lindzen’s lecture is here:
It’s roughly 7 pages, admittedly a little long, but you will understand a lot more of the controversy and reality of the whole global warming issue. Unfortunately there are a lot of people in charge of states who don’t have a clue.

 



Theorists of Propaganda Have Identified Five Basic Rules by The Elephant's Child
  1. The rule of simplification: reducing all data to a simple confrontation between ‘Good and Evil’, ‘Friend and Foe’
  2. The rule of disfiguration: discrediting the opposition by crude smears and parodies.
  3. The rule of transfiguration: manipulating the consensus values of the target audience for one’s own ends.
  4. The rule of unanimity: presenting one’s viewpoint as if it were the unanimous opinion of all right-thinking people, drawing the doubting individual into agreement by the appeal of star performers, by social pressure, and by psychological contagion.
  5. The rule of orchestration: endlessly repeating the same messages in different variations and combinations.

…………………………………………from Norman Davies: Europe: a History



The Columbian Exchange: The Most Important Ecological Event in Human History by The Elephant's Child

Historical evidence proves that there were interactions between Europe and America before Columbus’s voyage in 1492, but Columbus’ contact began a large, impactful and lastingly significant transfer of animals, crops, people groups, cultural ideas and microorganisms between the two worlds.

In 1493, on his second voyage, Columbus brought horses, dogs, pigs, cattle, chickens, sheep and goats to the “new” world.  In the 1530’s the Spanish Conquistador and explorer Francisco Pizarro saw the potato in Quito, Ecuador, where the Incas in the Andes first cultivated the potato. Think kindly of Pizarro when next you have french fries,(that common name tells of its travels).

Alfred Crosby who wrote an important book in 1972, called The Columbian Exchange: Biological and Cultural Consequences of 1492 claimed that the commingling of plants, animals, and bacteria resulting from the Columbian Exchange is one of the most important ecological events in human history.

From the Americas to Europe
Avocados, Beans (kidney, navy, lima) Bell Peppers, Black-eyed Susans, Cacao (chocolate), Chili Peppers, Corn, Cotton, Marigolds, Papayas, Peanuts, Petunias, Pineapples, Poinsettias, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Quinine (for malaria), Rubber, Squashes, Sunflowers, Sweet Potatoes, Tobacco, Tomatoes, Turkeys, Vanilla Beans, Zinnias

From Europe to the Americas
Bananas, Barley, Cabbages, Carnations, Chickens, Coffee, Cows, Crabgrass, Daffodils, Daisies, Dandelions, Horses, Lemons, Lettuce, Lilacs, Olives, Oranges, Peaches, Pears, Pigs, Rice, Sheep, Sugarcane, Tulips, Turnips, Wheat

And unfortunately:
Smallpox, Influenza, Typhus, Measles, Malaria, Diphtheria, Whooping Cough

And in return, the Old World got:
Polio, Hepatitis, Encephalitis, and Syphilis

And I didn’t realize that here in Seattle, Columbus is not celebrated, instead it is Indigenous People’s Day.  All part of the Democrat’s vision of redeeming us from our immoral past — or denying history to put it bluntly,  except for the parts that they like.

Denying history is a major problem. We are supposed to understand history, not deny it, and we are supposed to learn from history. But then that might lead us to examine the history of communism and socialism and prefer the capitalism that has lifted much of the world out of poverty and into the middle class.



Inebriated With Their State’s Storied History, Californians… by The Elephant's Child

pexels-photo-1191857

I lived in California for a number of years, and absolutely loathe the place, so I’m inclined to enjoy the news from the state. I believe I mentioned that Governor Jerry Brown is planning to launch California’s own climate satellite to monitor climate-change pollutants.  I can remember the days when one dressed up to go into “the city.” Now the streets of San Francisco are so fouled with feces that  tourist organizations advocate avoiding the place.

As a state run by Democrats, California has the Democrat illusion that control of the population is a desirable thing. They are a sanctuary state, welcome illegals, and ban plastic drinking straws to save whatever sea life is bothered by them. Assembly Bill 1884 bans dine-in restaurants from automatically providing plastic straws to customers. Plastic straws can be provided if the customer requests one. Violators will be fined $25 per day.

Jerry Brown has just signed the nation’s toughest net neutrality measure, requiring internet providers to maintain a level playing field online. The move prompted an immediate lawsuit by the Trump administration. The new law prohibits internet providers from blocking or slowing data based on content or from favoring websites or video streams from companies that pay extra.  From what I understand, the new regulations protect consumers, but the tech companies don’t like them, but the whole thing is a bit beyond my pay grade.

Not to be outdone in their concern for the health of the climate, California has adopted a 100 percent renewable energy goal — a law mandating that 100 percent of the electricity in the state will come from emissions-free sources by 2045. I don’t think he means that they are going to build a lot of nuclear plants—he means wind and solar. Unfortunately wind and solar cannot produce dependable energy. Essentially, he is declaring war on carbon dioxide, what we exhale every time we breathe. The environmental costs of wind and solar are huge, and a major factor in the state’s high electricity rates. But neither produce dependable energy, and not in high enough quantity to service the population’s needs. Natural gas and nuclear would be a better choice, but putting nuclear plants on top of the San Andreas fault is probably not a good idea. Wind turbines kill a lot of birds, as do solar arrays. The turbines chop them up, and the solar cells fry them.

Such global warming as there is seems to be caused by the action of the sun. The small increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is greening the earth. Here’s satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide:

screen-shot-2018-09-19-at-3-25-32-pm

These are trends in leaf area around the earth. Which feed hungry people around the world.
Civil Rights groups are suing the state because the climate regulations fall most heavily on those who can afford higher energy costs the least. California has the highest poverty rate in the nation.

And last but not least, (hee hee) San Francisco has passed an ordinance requiring public artwork to depict more women. Taxpayers, including women, will be stuck with the bill in this ridiculously expensive city. The new rule also requires the Arts Commission to put up a statue of Maya Angelou, who was once a San Francisco resident in the city’s main library.

When I lived in a San Francisco apartment briefly, about 5 or 6 blocks from the beach, there was a tidal wave alert. San Francisco residents rushed down to the beach to see the tidal wave.  (fortunately it was a dud. )



The Attempt to Control Is Becoming Pervasive by The Elephant's Child

An interesting search. I wanted to know the precise new title and agency for Dr. William Happer, appointed as a new science advisor in the Trump administration. He is a world-renowned physicist, Princeton University emeritus professor, and a splendid choice. Couldn’t find it at all. The first 6 pages on Bing and even on Duck Duck Go (the one that doesn’t track you) are given over to sources like Vox and Think Progress to claim that he is a prominent denier, Nazi, and to Bill Nye, the Science Guy, to insult Dr. Happer, with headlines like Bill Nye “Destroys” William Happer.

Bill Nye, Science Guy, is not a scientist. He has an
undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering.
That’s it. He is not an authority on anything. He is a
television personality.

I am a confirmed skeptic about global warming because I grew up outdoors in the mountains of Idaho. You will find that rural people who interact with the natural world every day are not terrified of global warming.  They leave that to Hollywood celebrities and city apartment people. I was an English major and I read. A lot.

Never did find Dr. Happer’s proper title in the Trump administration. on the 7th page on two search engines, I found Climate Depot, Powerline and the Cato Institute at numbers 72, 73, and 74. That seems to be a good indication of the attempt to suppress conservative thought. I think you will find this pretty common across all search engines, It’s common among newspapers and magazines, but those are clearly declining industries. You’re familiar with media reaction to being called “fake news” by the president.

Now we have a report from Chris Horner at CEI about the climate advisers in the governors’ offices, at least Washington’s Jay Inslee, California’s Jerry Brown and New York’s Andrew Cuomo who advise them on steps to take to tax carbon, attack oil companies, and in the case of Jerry Brown to put up his own climate satellite. It’s getting scary out there.



All About Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People by The Elephant's Child

Dr. Roy W. Spencer has a new Kindle book: Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People is meant as a concise and accessible summary of his skeptical views on global warming. After a year or more of thinking and writing, this new Kindle book is meant to fill that need.

32,000 words and 40 high-res illustrations, he says it is more comprehensive than his previous Kindle books, but still readable in about 2 to 3 hours. The book is not meant to cover all of the skeptical views out there, but everything that he believes is most important to the global warming and energy policy debate.

He adds Maybe the best way to summarize what is in the book is to list the chapter titles:

Preface
1. Overview of the Reasons for Skepticism
2. The Five Big Questions
3. Skepticism versus Alarmism
4. The Unholy Alliance: Politics and Science
5. How Could 97% of Scientists Be Wrong?
6. What is the Greenhouse Effect?
7. What Causes Temperature Change?
8. The Good News about Increasing CO2
9. The U.N. IPCC Consensus: Government-Funded Biased Science
10. Climate Models Exaggerate Recent Warming
11. Warming since the 1800s Suggests Climate Models are Too Sensitive
12. How the Reliance on IPCC Climate Models Affects You
13. Why is Warming Not Progressing as Predicted?
14. Refuting Common Climate Delusions
Conclusions

He adds:That last chapter is where I refute the frequent media claims about worsening heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, weather-related disaster losses, sea level rise, sea ice melt, ice sheet collapse, and ocean acidification.

I consider this my most complete treatment of the subject in one place, with my latest position on a variety of subjects. I have references to some of the latest findings and events of interest — as recent as September 3, 2018. I’ve included hyperlinks where appropriate so that readers can easily investigate my claims for themselves.

I hope you find it entertaining and informative. And, again, I am open to suggestions for material I might have missed… keeping in mind I am not aiming for the most exhaustive treatment of global warming skepticism, but the most effective one.

        ———————

I have not read it yet, but it sounds like a very good deal to me (and inexpensive). I have been following Dr. Spencer and Dr. John Christy for years, and have great respect for their work and their explanations of the science.




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