American Elephants

Panic-Button Time: The Paris Climate Pact Would Reduce Temperature by An Imperceptible Amount in 100 Years by The Elephant's Child

Kopie-von-IMG_1172President Obama is in Paris, a city still reeling from the deadly recent terror attacks, for the start of an eleven-day conference in which the promoters are hoping to get more than 130 world leaders to pledge support for an ambitious climate change agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and try to slow the earth’s rising temperatures.

During a White House ceremony in August, Obama spoke of his drive to reduce utility plant carbon emissions (shut down coal-fired power plants) as part of a larger global struggle to preserve the environment and avert catastrophic weather and public health problems and economic chaos. He cited some of the toughest challenges his administration has faced, including the Great Recession and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bang-up job with those, Mr. President, and right on track to make a mess of this one too. “No challenge poses a greater threat to our future than a changing climate.” Sigh.

That’s the mindset that the president takes to Paris. Au contraire. Carbon is not a pollutant. It is one of the building blocks of life. We are carbon life forms, and we exhale carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is a natural fertilizer in the cycle of life, and is taken up by plants in the process called photosynthesis. We learned that in high school biology. The plants exhale oxygen…surely you remember. And the small amounts of increased CO2 have meant a greening earth, able to feed greeningmore people. Catastrophic weather is not climate. We have been living in a period remarkably free of major hurricanes. Climate is always changing. It has been far warmer in the past, and the Medieval Warm Period was the best weather known to man.

We had a Little Ice Age — 500 years of colder weather from around 1300 to 1850. The Vikings gave up their farms in Greenland. The Scots had a period of mass starvation. 1816 in the U.S. was called “the year without a summer.” Since around 1850 the earth has been gradually warming. People and animals adapt.

The catastrophic warming that the president is so frightened of occurs only in the computer climate models of the IPCC, and it has been well established that they cannot predict today’s climate. There are too many things we just don’t know to accurately predict future weather, any more than we can accurately predict terrorist attacks in Paris.

Bjorn Lomborg, PhD is an expert in statistics, and just published a peer reviewed article investigating the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even assuming that the promised cuts are maintained, the impacts are small. They will do little to stabilize the climate and the impact will be undetectable for many decades. The Paris COP21 commitments with every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048ºC (0.306ºF) by 2100. Can you possibly adapt? The president has actually called it the greatest threat to our national security. The military must be quaking in their boots. But after his visit to Alaska last summer (to see the melting glaciers) the president did, oddly, see the need for new icebreakers and promised the Coast Guard he would push for them.

Arctic and Antarctic ice grows in the winter and melts some in the summer. Greenies see only the melting and deny the increase. Back in July, the CCGS Amundsen, a Medium Arctic icebreaker and Arctic research vessel operated by the Canadian Coast Guard traveling in Hudson Bay was rerouted to help ships stuck in the ice. An expedition to study the effects of global warming was put on hold — they were stuck in the ice.

Today, Dr. S. Fred Singer wrote in the American Thinker ∼of how solar observers predict a “Little Ice Age” to arrive before 2100. A slightly warmer climate can be extremely beneficial, but cold can kill. He discusses the problems that might face us with a colder climate, and how we can deal with them.

Big Climate Agenda in Paris: What to Expect. by The Elephant's Child

WCS header-0“Next week I will be joining President Hollande and other world leaders in Paris for the Global Climate Conference,” Obama said at a press conference on Tuesday. “What a powerful rebuke to the terrorists it will be when the world stands as one and shows that we will not be deterred from building a better future for our children.” His remarks came a day after the State Department issued a worldwide travel alert urging American citizens not to travel abroad for fear of increased terrorist activity. The travel advisory will expire in February.

The President seems completely sure that climate change is destroying the world, and to preserve it we have to switch to alternate forms of energy and put large amounts of corn into our gas tanks, and in general worship at the altar of pure environmentalism. The opposition are so-called “deniers” who are to be scorned for disagreeing. The problem is that the “global warming” in which the president believes so firmly exists only in the computer programs of the UN’s IPCC. They start with what we actually know about today’s temperatures, add a lot of informed guesses, some ill-informed estimates and  a lot of maybes and what ifs. We’ve had centuries of worry about the winters getting colder or warmer and everything melting. This is not the first time we have been through this. In the 70s they worried about cooling, and nuclear winter.

The so-called “Deniers” (intended to associate with Holocaust Deniers) or Skeptics believe that the climate is always changing, that it has been much warmer in the past, and much colder as well. Man and animal species are adaptable and have successfully adapted to changes. No need for panic.

Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change has admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity — but to destroy capitalism.

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.

I have no idea if this is Obama’s underlying belief, or if he is a true believer, like Prince Charles and Bill McKibben. The true believers are sure that the drought in Syria is the cause of terrorism, yet scientists say there is no drought. This gets us to the very awkward place where the people cannot agree on reality which is the increasingly common state of affairs between right and left.

There are increasing accusations that The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has cooked the books in a scientific paper which they prepared. They denied that there has been a “pause”  in the warming, which other scientists put at 18 years and 9 months of a quiet sun and no warming. History shows that scientists are not above doctoring the data to further an agenda, and there are very big bucks riding on a warming climate. Climate change activists are begging for the “deniers” to be scared to death to further their goals.

The Obama administration expects to update a controversial standard for ethanol levels in gasoline. Researchers say there is no benefit from including ethanol in gasoline, and it actually increases the CO2 in the atmosphere. The farmers in the Midwest want more ethanol so they can sell more corn at higher prices. The greens want more ethanol because gasoline is evil.

There’s a report from CFact that the Obama administration may be prepared to shut down the entire U.S. government unless Congress appropriates funds for the UN’s “Green Climate Fund.” This fund was created as a mechanism for the transfer of funds from  prosperous nations to  “developing countries.” Naturally the developing countries are anxious to blackmail the prosperous nations into funding their development, and much of UN funds are apt to fall into the outstretched hands of dictators and strongmen. They see no reason to agree to anything unless they get a major payout.

The newest bright idea is a demand for member countries to cut down on meat consumption to help them stem global warming. The livestock sector is responsible for  7.1 GtCO2  a year of greenhouse gas emissions (burps and flatulence), and equivalent to tailpipe emissions from the world’s vehicles. Adoption of a healthy diet (vegetarian) would generate over a quarter of the emission reductions needed by 2050. Raising the price of meat, or removal or subsidies for the livestock sector and substituting ‘plant-based alternatives.’ Uh huh.

The annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP-21) on climate change brings together over 191 countries and over 100 heads of state. Estimates are of around 40,000 in attendance to reach a legally binding agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that global temperatures do not rise more than 2 degrees C. over pre-industrial levels. A legally binding treaty would require signatures of 190 or more nations. Unlikely to happen.

There are not 67 supporting votes in the Senate, the Democrats are increasingly unwilling to vote for higher energy costs in an election year. European nations need higher levels of economic growth, and they are currently devastated with a massive influx of refugees and migrants.

Developing countries face real poverty, with need  for potable water, commercial electricity, and cure for diseases. They want a higher standard of living which means the use of fossil fuels. Windmills and solar panels aren’t going to do it.

The pursuit of significant emission reductions represents an agenda of the arrogant and crony capitalists who want to further enrich themselves by promoting subsidies, mandates, and loan guarantees to encourage solar, wind, and electric vehicles—even though these vehicles are not commercially viable and have no near-term prospect of being so.

That’s where we stand right now. Lots of hype and threats, and hard work to sort out reality. Britain is backing off from unworkable climate schemes, and looking to go for fracking to get at the natural gas in their shale deposits. Germany is building more coal-fired power plants, as are Japan, China, and India and all the smaller nations in between. Looks as if Obama is the one who is completely out of step.

EPA’s New Regulations Will Cause Double-Digit Increases in the Cost of Electricity in Most States. by The Elephant's Child

blobThe EPA’s Clean Power Plan is meant to fulfill Obama’s brag about bankrupting the coal industry. Burning coal produces carbon dioxide, which Obama believes to be the cause of global warming which he sees as the greatest threat to mankind, and darn it, he’s just determined to save us all from the horrors of a warming planet. Even NASA has said the 2015 is the warmest year ever, but they came up with those numbers by making up temperatures for the vast areas of South America where there are no temperatures available.

Two new studies by Energy Ventures Analysis and NERA Economic Consulting claim the EPA’s Clean Power Plan will raise electricity prices in every state it covers, with nearly all of them seeing price increases of 10 to 25 percent by the 2030s, which will accomplish nothing, nothing at all.

Forty-six states will face double digit increases in wholesale electricity cost when the CPP is fully implemented in 2030, with 16 states projected to experience a 25+ percent increase,” according to EVA’s report that was done on behalf of the National Mining Association.

NERA’s study found that “40 states could have average retail electricity price increases of 10% or more” and “17 states could have average retail electricity price increases of 20% or more.” Another “10 states could have average retail electricity price increases of 30% or more,” according to NERA’s study, financed by the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity.

Many noted scientists believe that the globe is cooling, rather than warming, and shuttering coal-fired power plants may be disastrous in colder parts of the country. Obama’s favored wind turbines are inclined to shut down  when it freezes.

The goal is to achieve a 32 percent reduction in CO2 by 2030. With its usual hubris, the EPA claims the CPP will yield $26 billion to $45 billion in net health and climate benefits from fewer power plants. That will be all the children who didn’t get the asthma they surely would have suffered from if nothing were done. As I keep pointing out, the EPA always goes for asthma, because doctors don’t know the cause.

Republican lawmakers  and dozens of states have warned that any global climate treaty can be undone in the courts. Obama expects to get China and other Asian countries to sign on to his climate change treaty, but China and India, and all the nations in between are building coal-fired power plants as fast as they can be built.They want the benefits of low cost power to grow their economies.

The Germans are turning back to coal fired plants, and the British will likely follow. They have done wind and solar and found them wanting, and now they want out.

Obama sees a planetary disaster, but the American people are not much interested. We have been threatened with disaster for over 20 years, and Americans are not willing to carpool, ride a bike or forego a vacation, In 1980, 0.05 percent of American biked to work. Today 0.06 percent of the people do. (That’s why we built all those expensive bike lanes.) Americans tell pollsters that they care about global warming, but when it comes right down to it — they seem to be pretty dubious.

Affordable power has meant growth and prosperity wherever it is available. Shutting down coal-fired plants will accomplish nothing, nothing at all, except a lot of unemployment and a lot of misery. It will make not the slightest differece in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. A higher cost of electricity will go a long way towards eliminating any growth in the economy. Takes sheer brilliance to accomplish all that.

Can We Have a Little Straight Talk, Please? by The Elephant's Child

Men College Leaving Safe Space

President Obama is slowly working up towards saying something more or less serious about ISIS. A few hours before the attack in Paris, Obama announced that ISIS was now “contained” and they were not “gaining strength,”which was supposed to reassure everyone. A little stronger than the dismissive “Jayvee team” a while back. But when it gets serious, he hauls out the grand terminology which has been so helpful for him. This was “an attack, not just on the people of France, but this is an attack on all of humanity and the universal values we share.” But that’s the problem. Humanity does not share universal values at all.  Mark Steyn put it well yesterday:

But that’s not true, is it? He’s right that it’s an attack not just on Paris or France. What it is is an attack on the west, on the civilization that built the modern world – an attack on one portion of “humanity” by those who claim to speak for another portion of “humanity”. And these are not “universal values” but values that spring from a relatively narrow segment of humanity. They were kinda sorta “universal” when the great powers were willing to enforce them around the world and the colonial subjects of ramshackle backwaters such as Aden, Sudan and the North-West Frontier Province were at least obliged to pay lip service to them. But the European empires retreated from the world, and those “universal values” are utterly alien to large parts of the map today.

And then Europe decided to invite millions of Muslims to settle in their countries.

Well, not to worry, the big Climate Conference in Paris will go on as scheduled, at the end of the month. The world will still be saved.

Organizers of a march to press for climate action planned for Paris on Nov. 29, the eve of the summit, said they would meet on Monday “to discuss ways forward”, said Alice Jay, director of the citizens’ campaign group Avaaz and one of the organizers. Organizers have been hoping to imitate a “People’s Climate March” in New York last year that attracted hundreds of thousands of people, the largest protest against global warming in history.

That’s the ticket, a march.

More Syrian refugees arrived in New Orleans almost two weeks ago eliciting a warning from the House Homeland Security Committee about the lack of current intelligence regarding the refugees who are in the U.S. and those who will arrive in the future.

The Obama administration is looking to increase the number of Syrian refugees who may be admitted into the U.S. as well as speed up the process. The administration plans to do this, Reuters reports, by opening new screening outposts in Iraq and Lebanon. As of now, the administration promised to accept as many as 100,000 refugees each year by the end of 2017. The present annual cap is at 70,000.

ISIS told us earlier that there would be jihadists in the flow of “Syrian refugees” to Europe. They have also said that jihadists have been inserted into America. We are stuck, however, with an administration that will not talk straight about the problem, or act straight. All is pretense. We cannot utter the words ‘Islamic terrorism’ for fear of ‘offending,’ and then we wonder why the kids on campus blather on about “safe spaces.” We claim that global warming is a more dramatic security threat than ISIS or al Qaeda. EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said “if you go up to anybody in the military who’s been paying attention,” they would say climate change is a major national security threat. Really?

So there you go. Over the last century, the globe has warmed almost a degree C. The only worrisome warming exists exclusively in the computer programs of the IPCC with which they have tried to predict the future — an impossibility. The Paris climate pact will reduce the temperature increase by the end of the century by a whopping 0.05° C.

Further Reading:

  • “Waging the War on ‘Terror,” Vichy-style” Victor Davis Hanson
  • War is Interested in You” Noah Rothman
  • How France Became an Inviting Target of the Jihad” Andrew C. McCarthy
  • “Syria refugee crisis: U.S. opens centres to speed vetting” CBC, Canada

Big Climate Meeting Coming Up, Time to Haul Out the Ozone Hole! by The Elephant's Child

In her continuing quest to turn the page on the flood of bad news regarding the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy has announced a new crusade. She wants the world to stop using hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in air conditioners and other consumer products, as part of Obama’s plan to fight global warming. She will be leading the United States delegation at the UN summit to take aggressive action on your air conditioners. She added her usual “phasing out HFC’s will avert 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by the end of the century,” one of those claims that the EPA can never produce the scientific rationale for.

What’s called “the Montreal Protocol” (1987) was supposed to reduce the production and consumption of ozone depleting substances in order to reduce their abundance in the atmosphere and thus protect the earth’s fragile ozone layer. Good intentions. But now there is uncertainty about the whole idea. The ozone layer may be much less sensitive than was assumed. In fact it may have always been there varying from year to year and decade to decade, and the UN claim of success, may well be nothing more than taking credit for natural variability.

Gina McCarthy Attempts to Prove the Value of the EPA. Big Job. by The Elephant's Child

epa04236753 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Gina McCarthy signs US President Barack Obama's new carbon pollution emission guideline plan at EPA headquarters in Washington, DC, USA, 02 June 2014. The plan, which bypasses Congress, calls for a 30 percent cut in carbon emissions by 2030.  EPA/JIM LO SCALZO (Newscom TagID: epalive211077.jpg) [Photo via Newscom]

There is some evidence that  the consistent mention of the “Pause,” that obvious fact, is beginning to bother some of the climate consensus crowd. To wit, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy. Of course the EPA has had some really bad press lately, as the world watched a great spill of noxious yellow mine tailings, that we were told is extremely toxic to life on Earth, into a tributary of the great Colorado River that serves most of the American Southwest. The Navajo Tribe said they would be instituting a massive lawsuit, but we have heard nothing further about that, nor has the spread of the yellow mess made the major news, or perhaps I just missed it. Gina McCarthy stated, in the pages of The Hill, that:

America has come a long way in protecting public health and the environment over the past 45 years. Since 1970, we’ve cut air pollution by nearly 70 percent, while our economy has tripled in size. America’s environmental laws have provided a solid foundation for success, but they’re only part of the equation. Without resources to work hand in hand with state, local and tribal partners to enforce these laws, progress isn’t possible. Laws talk the talk, but enforcement walks the walk.

When rules under the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and other laws are not followed, people suffer. Neighborhoods become polluted, livelihoods become threatened and the health of kids and families are put at risk.

Enforcement programs keep dangerous illegal activity in check. They hold violators accountable and deter bad actors. They level the playing field for businesses that play by the rules. And most of all, they provide security and protection to people across America, who depend on clean air, water and land to live healthy, productive lives.

This is probably what McCarthy believes. She is all for enforcement, big enforcement. Strong standards are a key step, and holding everyone accountable allows the EPA to protect American lives and especially the children (it’s always asthma). But I take it as a bit of self-justification from an agency under fire.

The problem is that the EPA has taken the original mandate of the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act, which Congress didn’t bother to define, as their authority to grab for power and control of ever more of America. They have been slapped down by the courts over and over, but it doesn’t seem to bother them at all. They issue immense fines, preferably in the billions, because the threat of enormous fines makes people and businesses surrender quickly. Not content with just cleaning up smog, they have turned to fine particulates, going so far as attempting to regulate farm dust, which may seem possible for city apartment dwellers, but for anyone who had ever been near a farm—is an absurdity.

The EPA attempt to grab control of the drip from your downspouts as a part of the “navigable waters of the United States” has been halted by the courts, but ‘overreach’ is in their blood. The pictures that accompany the news from the agency usually feature smokestacks which are belching (probably water vapor) but give the impression of noxious pollutants.

Carbon Dioxide remains a pollutant to the EPA, but for the rest of us (excluding Barack Obama and John Kerry) it remains plant food, one of the basic necessities for almost all life on Earth. Increasing levels of CO2 have increased crop yields by at least 10–15 percent, and are good for humankind as well as the natural world, for an acre of land that is not used for crops is left for nature. Between 1990 and 2011 – 13, although population increased by 31% to 7.1 billion, available food supplies have increased by 44%. This is good news that your probably didn’t hear.

I don’t believe that the EPA has saved a single life from pollution, nor kept a single child from contracting asthma (doctors don’t know the cause). Their overreach is not only excessive,  but damaging to the people and the economy. I don’t believe that the agency needs a swat team of their very own. They need to produce the science that they use to promulgate their rules and regulations, and establish that they are actually a needed bureaucracy, rather than an agency out for self-serving power grabs. And they need to prove that there is some reason why they should continue to exist.

NOAA Says there is No “Pause” But Refuses To Turn Over Their Evidence. by The Elephant's Child

10648glider_with_glacier4_edited_EvansTemperature has long been a problem for Climate science. We have weather stations all over the country to measure temperature, but when volunteers looked into the siting of the stations, it was found that many were situated next to air-conditioning outlets or vast expanses of concrete that are heat collectors. Tree-rings are fallible, but we now have a satellite record that is the gold standard. The RSS satellite record shows clearly the inconvenient truth that there has been no global warming since January 1997.

The U.S government’s main climate research agency has refused to release to Congress the key documents that support their conclusion that there has been no pause in global warming. What could they be trying to hide? James Delingpole supplies the answer:

But if there has been no “global warming” for nearly 19 years how can alarmist proselytizers like President Obama and John Kerry possibly hope to convince an increasingly skeptical public that this apparently non-existent problem yet remains the most pressing concern of our age?”

Step forward the Obama administration’s helpful friends at NOAA. It’s not supposed to be a politicized institution: its job is to do science, not propaganda. But the memo must have been missed by NOAA scientists Thomas Karl and Thomas Peterson who, in May this year, published a “study” so favourable to the alarmist cause it might just as well have been scripted by Al Gore and Greenpeace, with a royal foreword by the Prince of Wales, and a blessing from Pope Francis.

Data show no slowdown in recent global warming” declared NOAA’s press release. “The Pause”, in other words, was just the construct of a few warped deniers’ twisted imaginations.

There’s a lot of money and a lot of big grants, and new departments all invested in the urgent problem of global warming, not to mention the wind farms and solar arrays, as well as the farmers growing corn to put in your gas tanks.The farmers can go back to supplying food, but the climate modelers may need to find something more worthwhile to do.


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