American Elephants


Historic. Remarkable. Devastating. Destructive. World Ending. by The Elephant's Child

(Chicago, 1871. A city destroyed. Very low CO2.)

We are indeed watching historic hurricanes, but not in size or — destructiveness. Irma comes in only 7th in the list of hurricanes that have made landfall on the U.S. We had quite a respite from serious hurricanes, but now they’re back, but not because of global warming.

This year we have not only have almost instant coverage and constant updates, but we have film from the intrepid pilots who fly over the hurricanes. We have pictures from the Space Station and satellite pictures delivered instantly to your computer or cell phone. 

But hurricanes are unpredictable. Irma was a Category 5, degraded to a 4, then a 2.  Was supposed to go up the east coast of Florida, made a turn and is heading up the west coast, expected to hit Georgia and the Carolinas, then last I saw is turning west towards the more central states. Unpredictable.

Will more information make us brighter? Probably not. Irma pulled the waters out of Tampa bay, and some residents promptly went down to the shoreline to see the water pull so far back. STORM SURGE! A storm surge can be 12 or 15 feet above normal. All at once. One of the brighter souls suggested shooting this #*”! storm, and many thought that was an excellent idea, while officials shrieked no! no! the bullets can be blown right back at you. Looters are busy and busy being taken in. Some wag remarked — At least bookstores are safe!

For more serious and informed information, and a bracing dose of common sense, visit Climate Depot or Watts Up With That  where you will find the silliness debunked and links to the comments of climate scientists who are experts in this stuff. Read the comments too:

The WashPost ist buyed by Al Gore and his co-operates. That`s the real fight Pres. Trump has to fight against the fake news media. But Trump is a scotch fighter with german blood, he will stand this media storm. Scotchs have been fighting over hundreds of years against the normans, saxons and vikings on the british islands and Scotland is still standing until today. It is, in line with Ireland ( which is an island) and Wales the last bastion af the once great celtic nation.

With a period of low hurricane activity, people have forgotten how bad it can be, and they are scared that it’s all falling apart: Here’s Peter Brannen from the Guardian: “This is how Your World Could End.” And as a rebuttal, here’s the always sensible Christopher Booker: “Hurricane Irma’s numbers simply do not add up  although the global warming brigade would like them to.”

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Trying to Understand Hurricanes by The Elephant's Child

Hurricane Harvey is, I guess, in the mopping-up stage, which will be long and difficult. Someone mentioned that homeowners should not haul stuff out to the curb to be picked up until the insurance adjusters have seen and valued it. I hadn’t thought of that, I imagine one’s first impulses would be to get rid of all the ruined, broken and waterlogged and rotting stuff as quickly as possible.

Irma, following closely on the heels of Harvey has progressed fully into a Category 5 hurricane, prossibly the worst ever seen in the Atlantic,  if not the worst, or that may be an exxageration.  Barbuda is literally just rubble. Britain’s Telegraph has particularly good coverage of Irma in the Caribbean, for islands like Barbuda and Antigua are still British possessions. That’s Irma in the satellite image.

American coverage is more apt to focus on Florida, Georgia and South Carolina that are currently in the path. Winds of 185 mph will do a lot of damage. France also has islands in the Carribean. I’ve been there once on a cruise, but I don’t remember all the islands nor which one belongs to which country. Don’t like cruises, would never do it again.

Here’s an article about “5 Hurricane Charts Climate Alarmists Don’t Want You to See as They Rush to Politicize Harvey.” Surely no one would politicize so much damage and ruin and death, would they? Hurricane Katia is heading for the coast of Mexico, but so far doesn’t involve destroying winds. Irma looks to be heading up the Florida coast, but we won’t know till Friday. José is sitting out in the Atlantic at present. Go to the NOAA Hurricane Center for the official word.



Why Physics. “The Universe in a Nutshell” by The Elephant's Child

This is not new, but I had never seen it before. I took physics in high school and survived the class because I was one of two girls in a class of boys. I did not understand at the time what physics was for, nor why I should be deeply interested. Obviously because I did not have Dr. Michio Kaku as a  teacher. This is a long one, and utterly fascinating.



A $300,000 Climate Change Museum? by The Elephant's Child

In the final days of his administration, the former president oversaw the creation of a $300,000 “climate museum” in a government building in Washington D.C. (Paid for with taxpayer dollars), dedicated to the proposition that man-made climate change is a dire threat, and the wonderful work done by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and its voluminous files of regulation are absolutely necessary to keep us safe from disaster, or the Statue of Liberty sinking beneath the waves again.

The $300,000 price tag represented $211,111 for the Smithsonian Institution to create the materials shown in the museum and $134,000 to renovate the space. The content was created by the EPA Alumni Association, which compiled it and presented a timeline detailing the milestones of the regulatory agency since it was founded in 1970. Gosh. Do all federal agencies get a museum to extol their legacy? Seems a bit pricey for self-glorification.

According to the Washington Post, I find that it was a “pet project” of former EPA administrator Gina McCarthy, and is “tucked into” the lobby of the EPA Credit Union in the Ronald Reagan International Trade Center. It not only documents all the countless regulations that affect our daily lives, like the ethanol-enhanced gas we put in our cars, our useless new twisty light bulbs, to how we heat and cool our homes. And affects as well the design of our cars and their price, as well as the design and cost of our household appliances. They have not yet succeeded in getting centralized control of our  household energy. but they are working on it. The “museum” embodies the ideology of Obama and his EPA.  President Trump is using executive orders to undo many of the most toxic regulations, with more to come.

I would be surprised if the “museum” contains information on many of the regulations that the courts threw out, or for example, the massive yellow toxic spill of mine waste from the Gold King mine into the Animas River in Colorado which flowed into the San Juan River in New Mexico, and then the Colorado River in Utah, the Grand Canyon and became the water supply for drought-stricken California. The Navajo Nation sued the EPA, but the last I read indicated that the EPA had not paid up. I’d bet this picture is not included in the exhibit either.

Here’s an excellent example of the EPA and how they worked under administrator Gina McCarthy. The Sacketts case went to the Supreme Court, where it was overturned unanimously by the court. Andy Johnson, a welder in Wyoming built a small livestock pond on his property that was approved by the state authorities. That one was an EPA attempt to claim jurisdiction over all the “navigable waters” of the United States—or anything that eventually flows into the ocean that originally comes from a drip from your downspouts.

But I’ll bet there’s lots about how the EPA protected America’s children from the ravages of asthma. Asthma was a favorite cause of Ms. McCarthy, because doctors don’t know what causes asthma which makes it a convenient cause. The goal of the Left is not saving the environment, but control, and the  EPA was just one more tool in their crusade.  Just as the Left’s crusade for Sanctuary Cities, and open borders is another reach for control by increasing the numbers of people in the states that Democrats control or are close to controlling. Illegals are counted in the census, and thus affect the numbers of representatives in Congress that the state gets. The Left may not be well-informed about history or the inestimable worth of our Constitution (which they would love to amend significantly) but they are fully aware of all opportunities for advancing their statist cause.

Administrator Scott Pruitt is on the case, and working steadily to limit the EPA to its basic task of clean air and clean water, and he has the full approval of President Trump, who by executive order is undoing the things that Pruitt can’t do himself.

 



Could Global Warming Slow the Rise of the Sea Level? by The Elephant's Child

Since the first Planet of the Apes movie, the image of the Statue of Liberty drowning in rising sea waters has been done and done and overdone. But images are powerful and that may have helped to make many people think that a global rise in sea levels is the most to-be feared consequence of global warming. Flooding Pacific Islands, environmental refugees, panic in the streets. If I remember correctly, Santa Barbara was going to paint a line on city streets to indicate the potential rise of waters.

Remember that Obama predicted a deceleration of sea level rise when he accepted the Democratic Party nomination in 2008. “This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow, and our planet began to heal.”  Some scientists have predicted an acceleration of ongoing global rise, while others insist stoutly that there has been no increase in the rise of sea level. Here is climate scientist S. Fred Singer to explain the complications.

The difficulty with projections of sea level rise is nicely illustrated by the IPCC. The initial estimates of its first assessment report (1990) showed a range of 10-367 cm for sea level rise in 2100. The second report published in 1996 narrowed the range to 3-124 cm. The third report published in 2001 showed 11-77 cm. The fourth assessment report published in 2007 showed 14-43 cm in draft form but changed it to 18-59 cm in the final printed version.  As can be seen, the maximum SLR decreased successively as estimates improved.  All these IPCC projections are very much smaller than the extreme values of about 600 cm (20 feet!) by activist-scientist James Hansen (and by climate multi-millionaire Al Gore) — which assume excessive melting of the Greenland icecaps.

If you pour yourself a glass of water and add some ice cubes, as the ice melts the glass does not overflow. Keep that in mind. If you add another handful of ice, the glass may overflow.

During the strong warming of 1920-1940 there was no SLR — indicating a rough balance between the opposing effects.  In fact, scrutinizing the record, I can even discern a slight lowering of sea level, an over-compensation.  Unfortunately, back then in 1997 we had no data on Antarctic ice accumulation; so the hypothesis was not publishable.  However, now we do have sufficient data in support of such a scenario.

But if, as surmised, ice accumulation roughly balances ocean thermal expansion and contributions from melting mountain glaciers, why then is sea level rising?  Another riddle requiring a solution.

The relevant clue comes from corals and from geological observations: It seems that sea level has been rising for the past centuries at about the same rate as seen by tidal gauges in the last 100 years.  In other words, sea level was rising even during the colder Little Ice age, from about 1400 to 1850 AD.  This provides further support for the hypothesis that the observed global SLR since 1900 is reasonably independent of the observed temperature rise.  [It is also a killing argument against a widely quoted (‘semi-empirical’) theory that assumes rate of SLR is proportional to global surface temperature.]

Dr. Singer concludes that the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is not floating ice but like a mountain glacier—contributes more water to the ocean thus raising the sea level by about 7 inches per century. The melting will continue for another several millennia until the ice sheet is all gone (barring another ice age in the meantime), and there is nothing that we can do to stop this future rise. It is as inevitable as the ocean tides. Do read the whole thing. You will become an expert, able to dispel the anxieties of the true believers, and  your own, if any. Learn how they measure, and how recent studies have clarified the picture. And no, even Obama’s valiant efforts had not the slightest effect.



“The Closing of the Scientific Mind” by The Elephant's Child

An excerpt from a post by David Gelernter on January 1, 2014, in Commentary: “The Closing of the Scientific Mind,” in which he challenges scientists, suggesting that “the cultural authority science has acquired over the last century has imposed large duties on every scientist.” Are you listening Michael Mann?

I hope this brief excerpt will prompt you to read the whole thing, which is brilliant.

The Kurzweil Cult.

The voice most strongly associated with what I’ve termed roboticism is that of Ray Kurzweil, a leading technologist and inventor. The Kurzweil Cult teaches that, given the strong and ever-increasing pace of technological progress and change, a fateful crossover point is approaching. He calls this point the “singularity.” After the year 2045 (mark your calendars!), machine intelligence will dominate human intelligence to the extent that men will no longer understand machines any more than potato chips understand mathematical topology. Men will already have begun an orgy of machinification—implanting chips in their bodies and brains, and fine-tuning their own and their children’s genetic material. Kurzweil believes in “transhumanism,” the merging of men and machines. He believes human immortality is just around the corner. He works for Google.

Whether he knows it or not, Kurzweil believes in and longs for the death of mankind. Because if things work out as he predicts, there will still be life on Earth, but no human life. To predict that a man who lives forever and is built mainly of semiconductors is still a man is like predicting that a man with stainless steel skin, a small nuclear reactor for a stomach, and an IQ of 10,000 would still be a man. In fact we have no idea what he would be.

And to return to 2017: This piece from Breitbart today:  “Kalashnikov Group Announced Fully-Automated Combat Robots.”

Kalashnikov, the Russian weapons manufacturer behind the most effective killing machine in history, has stepped into the future of warfare, announcing its development of autonomous AI-controlled combat robots.

If you find that all entirely too scary, here’s a thoughtful piece by Matt Ridley, who is always thoughtful:

“Why You Should Be Optimistic”



It’s No Wonder the American People Are So Confused! by The Elephant's Child

While everyone is looking the other way, notably at Trump and Twitter, President Trump has announced plans to make the United States a global energy powerhouse. He has already taken steps toward unleashing domestic energy supplies, but he announced six more steps that he plans to take: reviving nuclear energy, removing barriers to building coal plants overseas, building more energy pipelines including one into Mexico, increasing exports of natural gas and creating a new offshore-leasing program.

Turkey threatens not to ratify the Paris Climate Accord.  Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan admits the only reason for signing was to get money from the U.S. and other wealthy nations. Now that the U.S. has pulled out of the accord, there’s no reason to expect the financial benefits. Proving once again that the Paris Climate Treaty (which we never signed) had nothing to do with climate, but only with redistributing economic wealth.

New York magazine has an article by one David Wallace-Wells titled “The Uninhabitable Earth,” subtitled “Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak—sooner than you think.”

Yale Poll finds: 4 in 10 Americans (39%) think ‘global warming will cause humans to become extinct.

Bombshell study: Temperature Adjustments Account for ‘Nearly All of the Warming’ in Government Climate Data.

President Trump demanded and obtained a clear statement of the U.S. rejection of the Paris Climate Agreement and just as important, a statement recognizing the appropriate role of efficient use of fossil fuels as an energy resource for the future.

July o9, 2017: It was just reported that Greenland set a new all-time July cold record, where the mercury plummeted to -33ºC.

Famed MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Ricard Lindzen: Believing CO² controls the climate “is pretty close to believing in magic.”

If you are interested, Climate Depot and CFact have produced a new Talking Points memo, an A-Z  Debunking of Climate Claims




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