American Elephants

Federal Department of Smoke and Mirrors: by The Elephant's Child

The prediction by that infamous “consensus” for job growth in March was 200,000. In fact it was 88,000. Those not in the labor force grew by over 660,000. The total civilian non-institutional population grew by just 167,000 to 244,995, meaning that the actual labor force declined by 496,000. This is the issue.

The Obama administration has managed (Federal Department of Smoke and Mirrors) (FDSM) to maintain the myth that the economy has grown under his leadership for the past 4+ years. It hasn’t.  Zero Hedge explains:

If one renormalizes for the recent long-term average participation rate of 65.8%, one gets a very different number. a “renormalization process indicates a massive and record 4% difference between the reported unemployment rate of 7.6% and what the real unemployment rate is assuming normal growth of the labor force, which in March was 11.6%, up from 11.3% in February, and the highest since August 2012 when it was 11.7%. More importantly, as the real unemployment chart shows, the economy has not improved by one bit since 2009:

(click to enlarge)
Douglas Holtz-Eakin
, former Drector of the Congressional Budget Office, now with the American Action Form writes:

The March jobs report was awful: jobs weak, labor force down, hours flat, and earnings flat. The jobs report is important not because of any single month, but because it is the leading indicator of a break away from the new normal: bad growth and weak opportunity.  No break to be found today. The Administration has slavishly adhered to the economic doctrines of Jimmy Carter.  They should not be surprised they are getting his results.”

Senator Jeff Sessions released this statement about today’s jobs numbers:

Today’s jobs report reveals that 90 million Americans are now outside the labor force. We need to be getting Americans back to work, helping people move off of food stamps and welfare, and find good jobs with steady incomes. But the comprehensive immigration bill being drafted right now would provide nearly immediate work authorization to millions of illegal immigrants while substantially increasing the future flow of workers. Our first priority must be to help American citizens, and current legal immigrants, find good employment. What we cannot have, and what is not sustainable, is an economic system where a large and growing share of our population is permanently unemployed while jobs are filled by a constant supply of foreign workers.

If you pay attention, you will notice that as the president visits some manufacturing plant and declares that manufacturing is coming back; at the same time some new regulation will be imposed by the EPA or HHS that will require new employees to cope with the paperwork, or reworking their processes, or shifting suppliers, or just letting people go to cope with  new costs.Or the cost of energy goes up from a new ethanol requirement, or the Keystone XL pipeline is denied.

Or Obama announces that he wants to raise the federal minimum wage to $9. The “Minimum Wage Law” is more correctly called the Youth Unemployment Law. Beginners need a place to start, but they also need a lot of training and help. If it gets too expensive, the fast food places hire senior citizens who know what they are doing.


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