American Elephants


Understanding Climate Panics, and Why They Occur by The Elephant's Child

The big thing to remember in all climate writings and excess, is that the climate of the earth has been changing for millions of years. It has been far warmer in the past during the Medieval Optimum, when wine grapes grew in England and wheat in Norway, and society flourished. It has also been far cooler during cold spells, such as the Little Ice Age in the 1800s, remembered as “1800 and Froze to Death.”

Climate panics take place regularly, for there are vast numbers of pessimists out there who don’t bother to do their required homework, and get all excited when someone appears in a polar bear suit, or in the case of Vegans — eats meat. Sure that fossil fuels are the source of planet doom (and that Oil and Gas companies are not only rich (the bad are usually rich) but destroying the world with CO2 )emitted by our nasty habit of driving cars and so on and so on. To the contrary, CO2 is plant food, and is greening the world. to such an extent that it can be seen from space. It is feeding the hungry with bountiful crops.

I believe firmly that we are being dumbed down by the internet and social media. We are being taught that we are to be informed by snappy headlines or tweets, and do not pursue the entire subject for lack of time and energy. You have to read the whole thing, not just the headline. Tweets may be interesting. but are not intended to pass on knowledge. The danger of an ill-informed public is extreme.



Dr. William Happer is Leaving the Administration by The Elephant's Child

Dr. William Happer announced today that he is leaving the National Security Council on Friday September 13 after completion of his one-year term as director of emerging technologies. He had previously served as the director of energy research for the Department of Energy from 1991 to 1993.

A statement by Dr. Patrick Moore who chairs the CO² Coalition and Caleb Stuart Rossiter, a climate statistician and the executive director of the coalition read in part:

We particularly call attention to your efforts this year to harden American infrastructure from electro-magnetic pulses, and to improve a government science bureaucracy that had been producing scientifically unsound and wildly exaggerated reports on the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global temperature and hence weather variables.

While your proposed review of alarmist analyses and projections has been delayed, we believe your work in calling attention to the problem of unscientific climate alarmism has reduced the chances of the dramatic increases in energy prices that would arise from the banning of fossil fuels that some have proposed. That in turn will improve and even save lives, both here and abroad.

Do read the whole article at Climate Depot. There is a huge push to spend $16 Trillion to stop climate change (We have no idea of how to stop the climate from changing), the government has no money of its own and $16 trillion coming out of your pocketbooks and wallets would have more effect on your well being than it would on the climate. Greta Thunberg has spoken and wants you to be scared about the climate like she is.



The Climate Has Been Changing for Millions of Years by The Elephant's Child

On the 75th anniversary of D-Day, Elizabeth Warren announced that Climate Change is “A Bigger Threat Than World War II”, and launched a Two Trillion “infrastructure investment plan” to address the threat of climate change, which she claims is a bigger threat to the American way of life than the enemies the Allied forces faced in World War II. The climate crisis in this country is a threat to the very existence of every living thing on this planet.

Not to be outdone in the climate panic department, our very own governor, Jay Inslee, who is running for the presidency on a climate based campaign in which the American people have showed no interest whatsoever, told an NBC News correspondent that President Trump’s stance on global warming is “treason.”

Something that is becoming increasingly obvious about Democrats is that they simply do not do their homework. It is remarkably obvious as well in the other 23 declared candidates for the presidency. They open their mouths and say something that should disqualify them from not only the presidency, but from whatever office they currently hold. Before you start spouting about existential threats to all life on the planet, you should have actually looked into the science. You could start with Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr.Tom Christy who measure the temperatures of the Earth for NASA at the University of Alabama at Huntsville.

The climate of the earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years. When the current interest fading into panic first reared it’s ugly head, all sorts of grants became available to anyone who could write a good grant proposal. Science departments in many universities felt that they could accomplish something with more powerful computers and the program used by financial people to forecast what the markets would do. Trouble was there were all sorts of unanswered questions out there, like the part played by clouds. They entered what they knew for sure, which was not all that much, and then their best guesses, and a few wild ones, and so we arrived at the current state of affairs.

Thing is, the planet is actually cooling, not warming. Glaciers are not melting, they are growing. Glacier National Park has quietly removed the signs “Gone by 2020” after the glaciers just kept on not being gone, but actually growing. The increased CO² in the atmosphere is greening the earth, since carbon dioxide, which we exhale, is a natural fertilizer for plants.The increased greening is visible from space.

The major greenhouse gas (95%) of the atmosphere is not Carbon Dioxide (CO²) but water vapor. (Clouds) According to Dr. Tim Ball, the next most important greenhouse gas of relevance is methane CH4, but it is only 0.000175 percent of atmospheric gases and 0.036 percent or all greenhouse gases. Water vapor is 95% of the atmosphere by volume, and is by far the most abundant and important greenhouse gas. And we just don’t understand clouds at all.

Surely when you were a kid, at some point you lay out on the lawn on a nice summer day to just watch the clouds drifting across the sky. If the action of clouds is a major determinant of climate, how do you measure that? Sometimes there are layers of clouds, each layer going in different directions. Sometimes there are lovely white clouds in front, and off in the distance big black thunderclouds, everything moving.

Then there is Christiana Figueres. She was the general secretary of the IPPC who admitted in a press conference that the goal of environmental activists was not to save the world from ecological calamity — but to destroy Capitalism.

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.

There are numbers of others in the climate field who have made similar admissions. There are innumerable books on climate and the error of climate panic, from Britain, Australia, Canada and the U.S. There’s a wide range of websites devoted to climate, I’ve listed just a few in the sidebar.

*The photo is looking due north. If you head over to the snowy peak and jump off towards the North, you will be where I grew up. This mountain is the northernmost anchor of the West range of mountains in Idaho. Nice country.



MIT Atmospheric Physicist Richard Lindzen Offers A Few Words by The Elephant's Child

Climate change is an urgent topic of discussion among politicians, journalists and celebrities, but actual climate scientists are not so much click-bait as real celebrities, and journalists seem more interested in click-bait than deeply informed commentary. We seem to be transforming into a society that values  popularity more than accuracy, or perhaps we always were, but it just wasn’t as obvious as it is today. Richard Lindzen is one of the most esteemed climate scientists in the world, and one to whom you should pay attention.



Hurricanes Are Not Caused By “Climate Change.” Just Nature At Work. by The Elephant's Child

President Trump was asked by “60 Minutes” Leslie Stahl about Hurricane Florence: He said:

“I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” … “I’m not denying climate change,” he said in the interview. “But it could very well go back. You know, we’re talking about over a … millions of years.”

“They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael,” said Trump, who identified “they” as “people” after being pressed by “60 Minutes” correspondent Leslie Stahl. She asked, “What about the scientists who say it’s worse than ever?” the president replied, “You’d have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda.

Well, you can imagine the outcry, Charles Schumer, distinguished Minority Leader of the United States Senate: “If we would do more on climate change, we’d have fewer of these hurricanes and other types of storms. Everyone knows that, except a few.” He added that The Trump administration has done nothing but “move the issue backward.”  Sorry, Senator. The president was actually scientifically, politically, and economically correct. Hurricanes are a natural phenomenon, unrelated to climate change.

“There is no trend in either intensity or frequency of hurricane strikes over the last 118 years. They have nothing to do with so called climate change. Out of the top 10 warmest Gulf of Mexico years since 1860, 7 occurred before 1970, which is before we experienced any significant warming”, according to Dr. Roy Spencer.

“So, all the “experts” can do is make vague claims about how major hurricanes like Michael are what we can expect more of in a warming world, but the data show that – so far at least – the data do not support the theory.”

The damage from Michael and Florence has been extensive, and to see so many houses flattened or disappeared is simply tragic, and the victims have our deepest sympathy. Federal aid and food and water start flowing in as rapidly as possible.

The Earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years “Global Warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warning. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work. …

But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s. (Do read the whole thing, not long)

The President is visiting Florida and Georgia today, and the first responders and volunteers are working in a massive Federal response:

Here’s a look at that response, by the numbers:

  • A major on-the-ground operation: More than 16,000 Federal employees, including over 8,000 military personnel, have been deployed.
  • Search-and-rescue efforts underway: FEMA, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the National Guard are working alongside state responders and volunteers. As of this morning, they have completed 110 evacuations, 4,193 rescues/assists, 15,287 shelter-in-place checks, 128 animal assists, and 16,827 structural assessments.
  • Power restoration a top priority: More than 35,000 utility workers from 26 states are working to bring power back to impacted areas.
  • Food and water distribution: In Florida, FEMA has provided 715,000 meals and 1.5 million liters of water per day. FEMA has also transferred more than 350,000 meals to Georgia, and 30+ distribution sites are being supported.

The response to Hurricane Michael is continuing. Thousands of industry workers are restoring power and volunteers are serving hot meals and providing shelter and comfort. Over the weekend the president issued a major disaster declaration for Georgia, and additional disaster assistance for Florida. FEMA Disaster Survivor Assistance teams are knocking on door to help families register for assistance.The President has called for maximum relief. When asked about his biggest priority for the trip, he said “Just making sure everyone is safe and that they’re fed.”



There Is No Unprecedented Global Modern Warming by The Elephant's Child

You have heard the wailing and screaming about President Trump’s exit from the Paris Climate Accords, but do you understand that the agreement, never ratified by the U.S. government (NOT a treaty) accomplished nothing at all to modify or change the climate. The climate of the earth has been changing mildly for millions of years, and there is no unprecedented Global-Scale modern warming. The “Accords” were designed to transfer large amounts of wealth from the rich nations to the poor nations, ostensibly to allow them to save themselves from that non-existent unprecedented warming.

There are two kinds of climate science that we are dealing with. One is based on satellite measurements and thermometer readings and recorded history. The other is based on computer programs, based, I believe on computer programs that were designed to forecast what the financial markets were going to do. They took what they knew about the climate, and put that in, and they put in thermometer readings from weather stations all over our country and from around the world. There were problems with that because a lot of them were placed where concrete paving and buildings reflected heat, and some were next to air-conditioning outlets, others next to trash burners, so the readings weren’t all that useful. Then there are lots of things that they don’t understand completely, like the extent to which the warming from the sun is affected by clouds. Michael Mann conjured up, from his computer programs, what is called the hockey stick graph, which shows that the heating of the planet suddenly takes a sharp turn up.

Science doesn’t run on dramatic conclusions like that. Someone proposes an idea, and if many other scientists can examine the facts and test them and come up with the same conclusion over time, then they begin to trust the idea, and continue to test it all over again as new information comes in. Scientists are still finding many old conclusions that they thought were settled science, just are not.

From the No Tricks Zone: (by Kenneth Richard on 10, May 2018)

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped —nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over 4 months into the new publication year and already 81 graphs from 62 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.

Do follow the link and see some of the graphs. They come from all over the world, and illustrate natural variation. Here in Seattle we had snow on Christmas eve, just enough to make the trees look pretty, and that was it for the whole winter. A few cold days that it tried, without success, to snow. We’ve had years when we were essentially snowed in with icy streets, and we had one good sledding year on the hill in front of my house.

I make no pretense of being a scientist. But I grew up outdoors in the foothills of the Rockies, and I’ve been snowed in, flooded out, and even had the Union Pacific railroad derailed in my front yard. Sorry, no one is going to convince me that normal changes in the weather are a catastrophe.



“Climate Change” Will No Longer be a National Security Threat by The Elephant's Child


The Trump administration will reverse course from the Obama administration policy which considered climate change a national security threat. The new National Security Strategy to be released on Monday will balance the idea of energy security with economic development and environmental protection.

“U.S. leadership is indispensable to countering an anti-growth, energy agenda that is detrimental to U.S. economic and energy security interests. Given future global energy demand, much of the developing world will require fossil fuels, as well as other forms of energy, to power their economies and lift their people out of poverty.” a draft of the National Security Strategy said.

President Obama made climate change, and the burdensome regulations that accompany its focus, a primary focus of his administration, including in his National Security Strategy released in 2015. “[W]e are working toward an ambitious new global climate change agreement to shape standards for prevention, preparedness, and response over the next decade,” that report said.

Here’s what the National Security Strategy said in 2010, when “climate change” first made its appearance in national security planning.

nss-2010-climate

John Holdren, who was Obama’s Science Advisor, had long been fearful of man’s effect upon the planet. He was deeply concerned about overpopulation earlier, and when climate change emerged as a potential problem, he adopted that concern as well, and passed it on to Obama.

The Navy and Coast Guard can go back to their ordinary responsibilities. And the rest of us can go back to worrying about the chemicals in our food and whether our cell phones will give us brain cancer.




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