American Elephants

Easing Your Mind a Bit About Climate Change by The Elephant's Child

The Weekly letter from Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) gets into Groupthink or Bureaucratic Science. British journalist Christopher Booker. who has just died, was working on a book on groupthink and climate change— expanding on a paper on the subject which was published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

NOTE: You can download the complete weekly report in an easily printable form at…

Let me just include a couple of bits from the report:

Led by John Christy, the Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), has 40 years of direct measurement of atmospheric temperature trends, yet the IPCC and others cling to surface measurements with very poor global coverage, with data contaminated by the urban heat-island effect. The IPCC ignores atmospheric data, where the greenhouse effect occurs. Based on their 40-years’ worth of worldwide data, the UAH group has estimated, in a published paper, that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) will result in an increase in temperatures of about 1.1ºC or 2ºF.

And: physicist William van Wijngaarden and his colleagues, using measurements of the effects of greenhouse gases without the effects of clouds, have found that a doubling of CO2 (from 400 parts per million to 800 parts per million), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) with a 6% increase in the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor, will result in an increase in temperatures of about 1 to 1.5ºC or 2 to 3ºF. The lowest value the IPCC projects is 1.5ºC, which is the highest value of what van Wijngaarden projects. The highest value of the IPCC is 4.5ºC, far higher than van Wijngaarden.

The work of van Wijngaarden is based on libraries compiled by Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Atomic and Molecular Physics, the updating of which is discussed in a recent paper published in the Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer. Unlike data from some groups, the data are not a secret and can be explored using the internet and a laptop computer. Those who wish to do so need to realize certain terms may be confusing. For example, species and Isotopologues refer to different isotopes of an atom, resulting in variants of the same molecule. For example, Except for extreme cases in laboratories, hydrogen has 3 isotopes depending on the number of neutrons. The most common form of hydrogen has no neutrons.

That kind of puts a different light on the fear that increases in CO2 are inexorably warming the planet and we are all going to die in just 12 years from a roasting planet. Holman Jenkins, writing at the Wall Street Journal says: Ignore climate-science reporting in major U.S. news organs. The press has given up wrestling with the limits of knowledge or accurately relaying the caveats tied to highly abstract computer models. If a worst-case scenario materializes, humanity will have recourse to relatively cheap geoengineering solutions to attempt to mitigate warming.

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