American Elephants


Hurricanes Are Not Caused By “Climate Change.” Just Nature At Work. by The Elephant's Child

President Trump was asked by “60 Minutes” Leslie Stahl about Hurricane Florence: He said:

“I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” … “I’m not denying climate change,” he said in the interview. “But it could very well go back. You know, we’re talking about over a … millions of years.”

“They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael,” said Trump, who identified “they” as “people” after being pressed by “60 Minutes” correspondent Leslie Stahl. She asked, “What about the scientists who say it’s worse than ever?” the president replied, “You’d have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda.

Well, you can imagine the outcry, Charles Schumer, distinguished Minority Leader of the United States Senate: “If we would do more on climate change, we’d have fewer of these hurricanes and other types of storms. Everyone knows that, except a few.” He added that The Trump administration has done nothing but “move the issue backward.”  Sorry, Senator. The president was actually scientifically, politically, and economically correct. Hurricanes are a natural phenomenon, unrelated to climate change.

“There is no trend in either intensity or frequency of hurricane strikes over the last 118 years. They have nothing to do with so called climate change. Out of the top 10 warmest Gulf of Mexico years since 1860, 7 occurred before 1970, which is before we experienced any significant warming”, according to Dr. Roy Spencer.

“So, all the “experts” can do is make vague claims about how major hurricanes like Michael are what we can expect more of in a warming world, but the data show that – so far at least – the data do not support the theory.”

The damage from Michael and Florence has been extensive, and to see so many houses flattened or disappeared is simply tragic, and the victims have our deepest sympathy. Federal aid and food and water start flowing in as rapidly as possible.

The Earth has been warming and cooling for millions of years “Global Warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warning. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work. …

But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s. (Do read the whole thing, not long)

The President is visiting Florida and Georgia today, and the first responders and volunteers are working in a massive Federal response:

Here’s a look at that response, by the numbers:

  • A major on-the-ground operation: More than 16,000 Federal employees, including over 8,000 military personnel, have been deployed.
  • Search-and-rescue efforts underway: FEMA, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the National Guard are working alongside state responders and volunteers. As of this morning, they have completed 110 evacuations, 4,193 rescues/assists, 15,287 shelter-in-place checks, 128 animal assists, and 16,827 structural assessments.
  • Power restoration a top priority: More than 35,000 utility workers from 26 states are working to bring power back to impacted areas.
  • Food and water distribution: In Florida, FEMA has provided 715,000 meals and 1.5 million liters of water per day. FEMA has also transferred more than 350,000 meals to Georgia, and 30+ distribution sites are being supported.

The response to Hurricane Michael is continuing. Thousands of industry workers are restoring power and volunteers are serving hot meals and providing shelter and comfort. Over the weekend the president issued a major disaster declaration for Georgia, and additional disaster assistance for Florida. FEMA Disaster Survivor Assistance teams are knocking on door to help families register for assistance.The President has called for maximum relief. When asked about his biggest priority for the trip, he said “Just making sure everyone is safe and that they’re fed.”

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Global Warming for the Two Cultures: Richard Lindzen by The Elephant's Child

The Global Warming Policy Foundation

The 2018 Annual GWPF Lecture
Global Warming for the Two Cultures”
8 October 2018
Richard Lindzen

…..Over half a century ago, C.P. Snow (a novelist and English physical chemist) who also served in several important positions in the British Civil Service and briefly in the UK government famously examined the implications of “two cultures:”
…..A good many times I have been present at gatherings of people who, by the standards of the traditional culture, are thought highly educated and who have with considerable gusto been expressing their incredulity at the illiteracy of scientists. Once or twice I have been provoked and have asked the company how many of them could describe the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The response was cold’ it was also negative. Yet I was asking something which id the scientific equivalent of :Have you read a work of Shakespeare’s?
…..I now believe that if I had asked an even simpler question –such as. What do you mean by mass, or acceleration, which is the scientific equivalent of saying Can you read? – not more than one in ten of the highly educated would have felt that I was speaking the same language. So the great edifice of modern physics goes up, and the majority of the cleverest people in the western world have about as much insight into it as their Neolithic ancestors would have had.
…..I fear that little has changed since Snow’s assessment 60 years ago. While some might maintain that ignorance of physics does not impact political ability, it most certainly  impacts the ability of non-scientists to deal with nominally science-based issues. The gap in understanding is also an invitation to malicious exploitation. Given the democratic necessity for non-scientists to take positions on scientific problems, belief and faith inevitably replace understanding, though trivially oversimplified false narratives serve to reassure the non-scientists that they are not totally without scientific ‘understanding.’ The issue of global warming offers numerous examples of all of this.
…..I would like to begin this lecture with an attempt to force the scientists in the audience to come to grips with the actual nature of the climate system, and to help the motivated non-scientists in this audience who may be in Snow’s ‘one in ten’ to move beyond the trivial oversimplifications.
The climate system
The rest of Dr. Lindzen’s lecture is here:
It’s roughly 7 pages, admittedly a little long, but you will understand a lot more of the controversy and reality of the whole global warming issue. Unfortunately there are a lot of people in charge of states who don’t have a clue.

 



The Attempt to Control Is Becoming Pervasive by The Elephant's Child

An interesting search. I wanted to know the precise new title and agency for Dr. William Happer, appointed as a new science advisor in the Trump administration. He is a world-renowned physicist, Princeton University emeritus professor, and a splendid choice. Couldn’t find it at all. The first 6 pages on Bing and even on Duck Duck Go (the one that doesn’t track you) are given over to sources like Vox and Think Progress to claim that he is a prominent denier, Nazi, and to Bill Nye, the Science Guy, to insult Dr. Happer, with headlines like Bill Nye “Destroys” William Happer.

Bill Nye, Science Guy, is not a scientist. He has an
undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering.
That’s it. He is not an authority on anything. He is a
television personality.

I am a confirmed skeptic about global warming because I grew up outdoors in the mountains of Idaho. You will find that rural people who interact with the natural world every day are not terrified of global warming.  They leave that to Hollywood celebrities and city apartment people. I was an English major and I read. A lot.

Never did find Dr. Happer’s proper title in the Trump administration. on the 7th page on two search engines, I found Climate Depot, Powerline and the Cato Institute at numbers 72, 73, and 74. That seems to be a good indication of the attempt to suppress conservative thought. I think you will find this pretty common across all search engines, It’s common among newspapers and magazines, but those are clearly declining industries. You’re familiar with media reaction to being called “fake news” by the president.

Now we have a report from Chris Horner at CEI about the climate advisers in the governors’ offices, at least Washington’s Jay Inslee, California’s Jerry Brown and New York’s Andrew Cuomo who advise them on steps to take to tax carbon, attack oil companies, and in the case of Jerry Brown to put up his own climate satellite. It’s getting scary out there.



All About Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People by The Elephant's Child

Dr. Roy W. Spencer has a new Kindle book: Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People is meant as a concise and accessible summary of his skeptical views on global warming. After a year or more of thinking and writing, this new Kindle book is meant to fill that need.

32,000 words and 40 high-res illustrations, he says it is more comprehensive than his previous Kindle books, but still readable in about 2 to 3 hours. The book is not meant to cover all of the skeptical views out there, but everything that he believes is most important to the global warming and energy policy debate.

He adds Maybe the best way to summarize what is in the book is to list the chapter titles:

Preface
1. Overview of the Reasons for Skepticism
2. The Five Big Questions
3. Skepticism versus Alarmism
4. The Unholy Alliance: Politics and Science
5. How Could 97% of Scientists Be Wrong?
6. What is the Greenhouse Effect?
7. What Causes Temperature Change?
8. The Good News about Increasing CO2
9. The U.N. IPCC Consensus: Government-Funded Biased Science
10. Climate Models Exaggerate Recent Warming
11. Warming since the 1800s Suggests Climate Models are Too Sensitive
12. How the Reliance on IPCC Climate Models Affects You
13. Why is Warming Not Progressing as Predicted?
14. Refuting Common Climate Delusions
Conclusions

He adds:That last chapter is where I refute the frequent media claims about worsening heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, weather-related disaster losses, sea level rise, sea ice melt, ice sheet collapse, and ocean acidification.

I consider this my most complete treatment of the subject in one place, with my latest position on a variety of subjects. I have references to some of the latest findings and events of interest — as recent as September 3, 2018. I’ve included hyperlinks where appropriate so that readers can easily investigate my claims for themselves.

I hope you find it entertaining and informative. And, again, I am open to suggestions for material I might have missed… keeping in mind I am not aiming for the most exhaustive treatment of global warming skepticism, but the most effective one.

        ———————

I have not read it yet, but it sounds like a very good deal to me (and inexpensive). I have been following Dr. Spencer and Dr. John Christy for years, and have great respect for their work and their explanations of the science.



Where Does Our Energy Come From? by The Elephant's Child

Coal is the most-used electricity generation source in 18 states; natural gas in 16, hydro, nuclear, petroleum — Wind? Solar?

EIA

From the U.S. Energy Information  Administration and WattsUpWithThat

Electricity generators that use fossil fuels continue to be the most common sources of electricity generation in most states. In all but 15 states, coal, natural gas, or petroleum liquids were the most-used electricity generation fuel in 2017. Since 2007, the number of states where coal was the most prevalent electricity generation fuel has fallen as natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectricity have gained market share.

In 2017, coal provided the largest generation share in 18 states, down from 28 states in 2007. Natural gas had the largest share in 16 states, up from 11 in 2007. Petroleum remained the largest generation share in only one state—Hawaii—providing 62% of the state’s electricity generation in 2017. For the United States as a whole, natural gas provided 32% of total electricity generation in 2017, slightly higher than coal’s 30% share.

Beyond fossil fuels, nuclear power plants provided the largest electricity share in nine states, up from six in 2007. Hydroelectricity is the most prevalent electricity generation source in six states, up from four in 2007. Hydro is the only renewable energy source with the largest share in any state, but that may soon change with the continued addition of wind turbines in states such as Kansas and Iowa.

Even though coal’s lead has been cut from 17 to 2 States since 2007, it’s still in first place. Numbers in parentheses reflect the change since 2007.

•Coal: 18 (-10)
•Natural Gas: 16 (+5)
•Nuclear: 9 (+3)
•Hydroelectric: 6 (+2)
•Petroleum: 1 (0)

Neither wind nor solar are capable of providing the energy needed by a state and all of its communities and industries. I haven’t yet been able to find an answer to the question of electric cars. If all vehicles were required to run on electricity, could our grid produce the needed energy? I suspect not., but I simply do not know. If, as we are told, it would be easy for foreign hackers to hack into our grid, could they just shut down — everything?



Governor Jerry Brown Had a Big Climate Event! by The Elephant's Child

California Governor Jerry Brown has announced that California will launch it’s very “own damn climate satellite” into orbit to battle climate change. State officials will work with San Francisco-based company Planet Labs to develop a satellite to track climate-change causing pollutants. “With science still under attack and the climate threat growing, we’re launching our own damn satellite,” he said. Radical Climatistas jetted in to San Francisco in their private jets for the 3-Day Big Climate Conference, where Brown announced his next big thing.

The Democrat governor, who is leaving office at the end of the year, did not announce a launch date or divulge a cost estimate.

Before Brown’s announcement, two prominent Democrats and a Republican mayor criticized Trump for his decision to withdraw the United States from the landmark Paris climate accord.

“While Donald Trump may have pulled out of the climate agreement, the American people have not,” former Secretary of State John Kerry said, opening the second day of the Global Climate Action Summit.

Kerry, also a Democrat, called Trump’s decision “the single greatest act of irresponsibility of any president of the United States at any time.”

Trump announced in June 2017 the United States’ intention to pull out of the international agreement, which Kerry signed while serving as President Barack Obama’s secretary of state. The 195 countries that signed the treaty agreed to commit resources to combating climate change.

Former Vice-President Al Gore followed Kerry to speak, and said that it’s difficult to deny than climate change is causing more severe weather but that “It’s a little harder to deny the 3,000 deaths from the hurricane in Puerto Rico.”

Governor Brown  has signed into law one of the most radical pieces of climate legislation ever, as SB-100, it commits the state of California to produce all of its electricity from alternative sources by 2040, which will happen only with a major scientific advance. Wind and solar cannot possibly support the state’s energy needs, so with current technology that means building a lot more nuclear plants in an earthquake-prone state. The result will be soaring energy costs, increasing poverty in a state that already has the highest poverty rate in the nation, and lower living standards for all. The state is home to a third of all the U.S. welfare recipients, with the most billionaires.

People are moving out of California in droves, a net 140,000 per year are heading for other states, half of them middle class or higher, and of child-bearing age. California seems to be home to large numbers of scientific illiterates. I don’t really understand all these people who do not do their homework. If someone tells you the earth is ending or the sky is falling it would seem to be a good idea to find out if it is actually true.

Harrison Ford was one of the Hollywood types who jetted up to be a part of Governor Brown’s 3-day whoop-de-do in San Francisco for far-left climatistas.

“While you work to meet the challenge of climate change, I beg of you—don’t forget nature. Because today, the destruction of nature accounts for more global emissions than all the cars and trucks in the world.”

“We face an unprecedented moment in this country. Today’s greatest threat is not climate change, not pollution, not flood or fire. It’s that we’ve got people in charge of important shit who don’t believe in science.”

Harrison Ford also castigated politicians like Trump, whose “political or economic self-interest denigrate or belittle sound scientific understanding of the causes and effects of human pressure on the environment.”

I wonder what he has in mind as the “destruction of nature” when the Earth is greening and food crops and forests alike are growing vigorously because of the slight amount of greater CO² in the atmosphere. And where does he get his loony ideas about climate? He clearly does not keep up with the science. He’s responding to climate propaganda without ever questioning it. along with Al Gore and Leo Di Caprio.

There’s no end to the catastrophe that our media has in for us as the result of climate change. Did you realize that climate change is threatening the world’s supply of coffee beans? Conditions for growing coffee would no longer be suitable, and plagues and pestilences will destroy the crops.  You’d have to change to tea.  And look what the media claimed!



Three Failed Governors Getting Together To Make Matters Worse! by The Elephant's Child

02212013_money_drain_article

LifeZette’s headline: “Privately Funded Government Jobs Advance Left’s Climate Agenda.” The invaluable Chris Horner at CEI details how three governors (Jerry Brown,  Andrew Cuomo, and Jay Inslee) who have managed to make a mess of the states they have been running, are using activist donor money to bypass their legislatures. The CEI report details a budget of $10 million in donor money for 2018 and $25 million in 2019.

Another new report exposes Global Warming “Law Enforcement for Rent”. Donors are paying for lawyers to pursue environmental cases by state Attorney Generals. This is another brief summary of Chris Horner’s work. If you find this somewhat alarming, you may want to review Chris Horner’s actual work, which is very long but readily available at CEI.org.

The environmental movement has long had advisors in the governors offices offering help with good programs to introduce, conference calls with other governors who are doing the same “good work”, good publicity, that sort of thing. This seems to be something different and more alarming.

The globe has been warming and cooling for millions of years, and has actually cooled a bit recently. Hurricanes are not caused by global warming. The amount of CO² in the atmosphere is helping plants to grow, including our forests, because CO² is a natural fertilizer. Helps food crops as well, which is relieving hunger across the world. Alarmist global warming exists only in the computer programs devised by climate scientists who want government grants and new equipment and assume that they can create in a computer a program that prophecies the future climate of the world. They can’t. If you want the real climate, consult Dr. Roy Spencer, who runs the satellites that actually measure the temperatures of the world, with Dr. John Christy at University of Alabama at Huntsville.

Christiana Figueres, who was general secretary of the UN’s Framework Convention of Climate Change spilled the beans in February of 2015, when she earnestly explained that the goal of environmental activists was not to save the world from ecological calamity—but to destroy Capitalism.

Fairly recently, we were told that although there was no Russian collusion in the presidential campaign, the Russians were investing a lot to support environmental cases against fracking and natural gas in the U.S. in particular. Russia is very dependent on the money they get from selling their natural gas to Europe, and they don’t want any competition, either from fracking, or from U.S. sales of natural gas so if they can encourage environmentalists who want to file lawsuits, they’re there to help.




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