American Elephants


New Study Finds Variations in Global Warming Trend are Caused by the Oceans by The Elephant's Child

A report from the University of Southampton says that “new research has shown that natural variations in global mean temperature are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans, in particular the heat release associated with evaporation.” What, what? you mean it is not burning evil fossil fuels?

Analysing data from six climate models that simulated future climate change scenarios for the last International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Report, which appeared in 2014, University of Southampton Professor Sybren Drijfhout has shown that in all cases variations in global mean temperature were correlated with variations in heat release by sensible and latent heat. Writing in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, Professor Drijfhout says these variations are associated with heat transfer due to temperature differences between the surface ocean and the overlying air, and heat transfer associated with evaporation. The heat fluxes are also called the turbulent heat fluxes.

“The relation holds in all models and is independent of the time-scale of the variation in temperature”, says Professor Drijfhout, Chair in Physical Oceanography and Climate Physics at Southampton. “When the atmosphere gets extra warm it receives more heat from the ocean, when it is extra cool it receives less heat from the ocean, making it clear that the ocean is the driving force behind these variations.”

The full report can be found here. It’s not that long, but fascinating for those of us interested in both the science and the politics of the current global warming “crisis.”

If the variations take longer, sea-ice becomes the trigger, and the variations peak over areas where surface water sinks to great depth and deep and bottom waters are formed which are transported by the global overturning circulation, or more popularly dubbed — the Great Conveyor Belt.

Powerful images. Do read the whole thing, it will only take you about 3 minutes if you don’t stop too long to try to figure out how the good professor’s name is pronounced. And if you can figure it out, let me know.
I have no idea.

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There Is No Unprecedented Global Modern Warming by The Elephant's Child

You have heard the wailing and screaming about President Trump’s exit from the Paris Climate Accords, but do you understand that the agreement, never ratified by the U.S. government (NOT a treaty) accomplished nothing at all to modify or change the climate. The climate of the earth has been changing mildly for millions of years, and there is no unprecedented Global-Scale modern warming. The “Accords” were designed to transfer large amounts of wealth from the rich nations to the poor nations, ostensibly to allow them to save themselves from that non-existent unprecedented warming.

There are two kinds of climate science that we are dealing with. One is based on satellite measurements and thermometer readings and recorded history. The other is based on computer programs, based, I believe on computer programs that were designed to forecast what the financial markets were going to do. They took what they knew about the climate, and put that in, and they put in thermometer readings from weather stations all over our country and from around the world. There were problems with that because a lot of them were placed where concrete paving and buildings reflected heat, and some were next to air-conditioning outlets, others next to trash burners, so the readings weren’t all that useful. Then there are lots of things that they don’t understand completely, like the extent to which the warming from the sun is affected by clouds. Michael Mann conjured up, from his computer programs, what is called the hockey stick graph, which shows that the heating of the planet suddenly takes a sharp turn up.

Science doesn’t run on dramatic conclusions like that. Someone proposes an idea, and if many other scientists can examine the facts and test them and come up with the same conclusion over time, then they begin to trust the idea, and continue to test it all over again as new information comes in. Scientists are still finding many old conclusions that they thought were settled science, just are not.

From the No Tricks Zone: (by Kenneth Richard on 10, May 2018)

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped —nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over 4 months into the new publication year and already 81 graphs from 62 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.

Do follow the link and see some of the graphs. They come from all over the world, and illustrate natural variation. Here in Seattle we had snow on Christmas eve, just enough to make the trees look pretty, and that was it for the whole winter. A few cold days that it tried, without success, to snow. We’ve had years when we were essentially snowed in with icy streets, and we had one good sledding year on the hill in front of my house.

I make no pretense of being a scientist. But I grew up outdoors in the foothills of the Rockies, and I’ve been snowed in, flooded out, and even had the Union Pacific railroad derailed in my front yard. Sorry, no one is going to convince me that normal changes in the weather are a catastrophe.



Seventeen States Attack EPA Vehicle Emission Standards. Weak Legal Case, Big Publicity. by The Elephant's Child

Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator is doing a marvelous job, rolling back one bad EPA regulation after another, and the Left wants his head. He believes that credible science and transparency are necessary elements of sound policy. Well, we can’t have that. He believes that the EPA should no longer enjoy free rein to impose major regulations that are based on studies that are not available for public scrutiny. And the environmental lobby is having hissy-fits. Their claim that research subjects’ privacy would be violated is nonsense. Personal information is not even relevant in agency rule-making.

The environmental group’s rallying cry was that the public has a “right to know” for public disclosure requirements on the private sector that included informational labeling, emissions reporting, workplace safety warnings, beach advisories, and pending enforcement actions.

The proposed rule is aligned with the Data Access Act which requires federal agencies to ensure that data which is produced under grants or agreements with universities, hospitals and nonprofit organizations is available to the public through the Freedom of Information Act.

Legislation was passed by the House last year to prohibit the EPA from “proposing, finalizing or disseminating a covered action unless all scientific and technical information which was relied on to support the action is the best available science, specifically identified, and publicly available in a manner sufficient for independent analysis and substantial reproduction of research results. The EPA, among other obfuscations, was blaming all sorts of things on causing asthma in children—totally ignoring the fact that physicians do not know what causes asthma. That sort of thing. EPA regulation has expanded exponentially every decade since the 1970s at tremendous expense to the nation. The science that supported the regulation was apparently a secret.

California, joined by 16 states and the District of Columbia has petitioned the DC Circuit Court of Appeals to stop EPA Administrator Pruitt from revising his predecessor’s greenhouse gas emission standards for new cars sold in 2022-2025. Their press release claimed that their “lawsuit is based on the fact that the EPA acted arbitrarily and capriciously, failed to follow its own regulations, and violated the Clean Air Act.”

Well, no this is not a final action. The EPA rule specifically states that if EPA decides the standards are appropriate, that “decision will be the final agency action which will also be subject to judicial review on its merits.”

The Obama era EPA’s rush to judgment was for the political purpose of confronting the incoming Trump administration with a regulatory fait accompli, and it produced an agenda-driven rulemaking rather than an evidence-based rulemaking. There was supposed to be a harmonized national vehicle program. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers warns that” the process now bears no resemblance to the coordinated effort that was envisioned in the midterm evaluation.”

It’s bad enough that the federal government presumes to determine for all consumers the relative importance of fuel efficiency compared to other vehicle attributes such as affordability, size, safety, utility, comfort, and style. States should not have a say in determining such tradeoffs in what every reasonable person acknowledges should be a national market.

The nation’s fuel economy statute, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, prohibits states from adopting or enforcing laws or regulations “related to” fuel economy. California’s greenhouse gas emission standards are strongly related to fuel economy standards, because carbon dioxide (CO2) constitutes 94.9 percent of vehicular GHG emissions, and “there is a single pool of technologies … that reduce fuel consumption and thereby CO2 emissions as well” (75 FR 25372).

The top ten automobile producing states are Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Texas, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. California is not on the list. Their lawsuit is vastly premature as they can only sue for a “final action” which isn’t anywhere near the case. So we can assume that this is some kind of grandstanding. Pruitt’s determination that the Obama rules are not appropriate is based on new information about fuel prices, projected vehicle cost, consumer preferences and other relevant factors. The proposed notice of withdrawal summarizes the viewpoints of experts who disagree with the agency’s assessments. It just doesn’t reach the conclusion that California wants. With the 17 state lawsuit, however, you will hear a lot about how the Trump EPA is trying to destroy the environment and make automobiles noxious gas emission spewing horrors, or something like that. Trump Derangement Syndrome.



Here’s Some of the Excitement of “Earth Day” by The Elephant's Child

Yesterday was “Earth Day” which I take no notice of.  Penn State University, however marked the day by announcing that they would refuse to allow a near-century old recreation club— The Penn State Outing Club founded in 1920—to organize the outdoor, student-led trips of camping and hiking . It seems they judge the activities to be too risky. Two other outdoor recreation clubs — the Nittany Grotto Caving Club and the Nittany Divers SCUBA Club have been directed to end trip offerings.

Mark J. Perry Ph.D. a professor of economics at the University of Michigan Flint, writing for the American Enterprise Institute, posted a spectacular list of 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around the first “Earth Day” in 1970.

1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

Here are the other fourteen: The true believers heard this news, swallowed it
whole, and attributed any suggestion that they were not true to the “deniers.”

A good many of the most hysterical anti-Trump crowd are in despair or fright because he withdrew from the Paris Climate Accords, which would have accomplished nothing, nothing at all for the climate. An amount too  small to be measured, the scientists said.



The Most Vapid Conversation Ever? by The Elephant's Child

This conversation took place about a year ago on Bernie Sanders’ show, featuring Bill Nye, “the science guy” who apparently doesn’t know any. This is perhaps the most vapid, inane, totally empty of thought or meaning conversation I have ever heard.

Science consists of hypotheses that can be tested and the results can be retested by others and come up with the same results. Bill Nye keeps referring to those who do not agree with him as “deniers,”which is just a slur since no one denies that the climate changes. The climate has been changing for millions of years. The climate science that alarmists extol comes out of computer programs, not the real world. And there is no 97% consensus among climate scientists. That has been thoroughly debunked.

James Hansen, former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who Nye cites, wrote a paper in 2008 that claimed his climate models showed that exceeding 350 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere would have catastrophic effects. We have long since blown past that point, and the result has been the greening of the Earth. CO2 is a natural fertilizer for plants, and the plant growth is feeding a hungry world.  Plant nurseries keep their greenhouses at somewhere around 1,000 ppm, and the nurserymen are still healthy. Real world evidence clearly shows Hansen’s theory was wrong.

Bernie Sanders serves on Senate committees on the environment and climate. Bill Nye spoke of the rising sea level, and how it would force the people of New Orleans to abandon their homes, and they would leave behind great coils of wire and pipes. These two gentlemen clearly have no idea what they are talking about, but they care deeply about global warming. A situation that seems to be common on the Left.  This level of sheer ignorance should be disturbing.



Catching Up With Climate Science: by The Elephant's Child

A 2008 paper by James Hansen, former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies showed the true gravity of the situation. In it, Hansen set out to determine what level of atmospheric CO2 society should aim for if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life of Earth is adapted. His climate models showed that exceeding 350 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere would likely have catastrophic effects. We’ve already blown past that limit. Right now, environmental monitoring shows concentrations around 400 ppm.

There were no consequences. Real world evidence clearly demonstrate Hansen’s hypothesis is wrong.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may have a boring name, but it has a very important job: It measures U.S. temperatures. Unfortunately, it seems to be a captive of the global warming religion. Its data are fraudulent.

What do we mean by fraudulent? How about this: NOAA has made repeated “adjustments” to its data, for the presumed scientific reason of making the data sets more accurate.

Nothing wrong with that. Except, all their changes point to one thing — lowering previously measured temperatures to show cooler weather in the past, and raising more recent temperatures to show warming in the present.

This creates a data illusion of ever-rising temperatures to match the increase in CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere since the mid-1800s, which global warming advocates say is a cause-and-effect relationship. The more CO2, the more warming.  (Investor’s Business Daily 3/29/18)

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From wattsupwiththat, April 1, 2018

Mark Fife writes that an analysis of  GHCN climate stations shows there is no statistically significant warming – or cooling.

In Conclusion, based upon the available long-term temperature data the case for global warming is very weak. There is evidence to suggest a hemispheric pattern exists. The evidence further suggests this is a cyclical pattern which is evident in localized temperature peaks in the 1930’s and the 1990’s. However, changes in local site conditions due to human development appear to be the most important factor affecting overall temperature changes. Extreme warming trends are almost certainly due to human induced local changes.  The entire article is here.

From the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). 4/06/18

A new paper says that there are unseen worlds of wonder under our noses. There is a new understanding of ultra-long timescales that we are too short-lived to perceive.

Prof. Essex explains, “Unlike the stable virtual ‘climates’ seen in computer simulations, corresponding real-world conditions aren’t stable at all. There are perpetual, natural, internal changes in play that take longer than human lifetimes to play out.”

No human will ever fully perceive this change. No one lives long enough.  But some astute people, in their later years, might just be able to make a little of it out.

Prof. Essex adds, “There is an ultraslow, mysterious, unseen world out there, under our very noses, that we cannot perceive. It’s beyond our measurement capabilities, and beyond the capabilities of our best computers using our very best physical theories. It belongs to a class of problems that we cannot overwhelm with data, or crush with our biggest computers.”



Science and Health and Science Scaredy-Cats by The Elephant's Child

Oh dear, O dear! I believe this was the evening when we were, all across the world, at precisely Eight o’clock — supposed to turn off all our lights and sit in the dark for an hour to save the earth, or show our empathy for those who are deeply concerned about the climate and the earth and the future. I usually see enough reminders to remember to turn on all my lights to demonstrate my skepticism.

I grew up in Idaho, in what you might call the foothills of the Rockies,  mostly outside, winter or summer. Winter was for sledding, and we had a splendid sledding hill, or building snow forts, but let me not drift off into reminiscing. Some winters we had little snow, not much more than 3 feet on the level. Other years, 5 or 6 feet. Some years we could skate on the river, others not. Been snowed in. When it gets down to 20° below, all the hairs in your nose freeze. The climate has warmed over the last century, somewhere around one degree. The Paris Climate Agreement would not have prevented any measurable amount of warming.

The Paul Erlich’s of the world have always believed in overpopulation and consequent hunger and starvation. Yet what has happened is that the very small amount of increased CO2 in the atmosphere has meant the greening of the planet, less famine and more food.

Most packaged goods in the grocery store will carry the admonition somewhere on the label that there are no GMO ingredients  (genetically modified organisms) in their offering, yet I just saw the notice today that another country (in this case Canada) has approved “golden rice”, a strain of rice to which a carotene-producing gene is added.

In many areas of Asia, vitamin A  is devastatingly rare in the diet of many children, causing blindness and altered immunity. Since rice is the dietary staple, adding it to rice can save children from the deficiency.  Nearly 500 million children are said to be deficient. Yet the usual suspects (the anti-GM foods nuts at Greenpeace) have fits claiming all sorts of disasters from the golden rice. The link is to a story from ASCH which also explains the Gates Foundation’s work in fortifying bananas with beta-carotene for the highlands of East Africa where the dietary staple is bananas. There is another banana in Papua New Guinea that contains so much beta carotene that they are orange, and they can simply transplant the gene that produces it into Africa’s cooking banana.

I wandered a bit all over the planet with this post, which started with telling you that I forgot to turn on all the lights to celebrate President Trump’s exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, the loonies who flunked high school biology and chemistry and are terrified of science, and the advances of science in preventing blindness and death in the children of some areas of Asia. ASCH — the American Council on Science and Health is a dandy website for understanding what’s going on in this part of the world. You can sign up for a free subscription, and they’ll send a brief note to your mailbox with the latest news. The Little Black Book of Junk Science by  Alec Berezow is newly available and is just what the title implies.




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