American Elephants


New Study Finds Variations in Global Warming Trend are Caused by the Oceans

A report from the University of Southampton says that “new research has shown that natural variations in global mean temperature are always forced by changes in heat release and heat uptake by the oceans, in particular the heat release associated with evaporation.” What, what? you mean it is not burning evil fossil fuels?

Analysing data from six climate models that simulated future climate change scenarios for the last International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Report, which appeared in 2014, University of Southampton Professor Sybren Drijfhout has shown that in all cases variations in global mean temperature were correlated with variations in heat release by sensible and latent heat. Writing in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, Professor Drijfhout says these variations are associated with heat transfer due to temperature differences between the surface ocean and the overlying air, and heat transfer associated with evaporation. The heat fluxes are also called the turbulent heat fluxes.

“The relation holds in all models and is independent of the time-scale of the variation in temperature”, says Professor Drijfhout, Chair in Physical Oceanography and Climate Physics at Southampton. “When the atmosphere gets extra warm it receives more heat from the ocean, when it is extra cool it receives less heat from the ocean, making it clear that the ocean is the driving force behind these variations.”

The full report can be found here. It’s not that long, but fascinating for those of us interested in both the science and the politics of the current global warming “crisis.”

If the variations take longer, sea-ice becomes the trigger, and the variations peak over areas where surface water sinks to great depth and deep and bottom waters are formed which are transported by the global overturning circulation, or more popularly dubbed — the Great Conveyor Belt.

Powerful images. Do read the whole thing, it will only take you about 3 minutes if you don’t stop too long to try to figure out how the good professor’s name is pronounced. And if you can figure it out, let me know.
I have no idea.

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Peter Thiel: The Decline of Western Civilization

This is a fun commentary on today’s world. Food for thought, which is always welcome. Congressmen are just ordinary folks who don’t know very much? Yet are designated to make the laws that govern us? Perhaps we should think a little more deeply about just whom we elect to office. We have had great eras of ideas and invention. What is the situation that creates and encourages those ideas? Is it the desire for profit? The simple desire to carry an idea through to fruition?



There Is No Unprecedented Global Modern Warming

You have heard the wailing and screaming about President Trump’s exit from the Paris Climate Accords, but do you understand that the agreement, never ratified by the U.S. government (NOT a treaty) accomplished nothing at all to modify or change the climate. The climate of the earth has been changing mildly for millions of years, and there is no unprecedented Global-Scale modern warming. The “Accords” were designed to transfer large amounts of wealth from the rich nations to the poor nations, ostensibly to allow them to save themselves from that non-existent unprecedented warming.

There are two kinds of climate science that we are dealing with. One is based on satellite measurements and thermometer readings and recorded history. The other is based on computer programs, based, I believe on computer programs that were designed to forecast what the financial markets were going to do. They took what they knew about the climate, and put that in, and they put in thermometer readings from weather stations all over our country and from around the world. There were problems with that because a lot of them were placed where concrete paving and buildings reflected heat, and some were next to air-conditioning outlets, others next to trash burners, so the readings weren’t all that useful. Then there are lots of things that they don’t understand completely, like the extent to which the warming from the sun is affected by clouds. Michael Mann conjured up, from his computer programs, what is called the hockey stick graph, which shows that the heating of the planet suddenly takes a sharp turn up.

Science doesn’t run on dramatic conclusions like that. Someone proposes an idea, and if many other scientists can examine the facts and test them and come up with the same conclusion over time, then they begin to trust the idea, and continue to test it all over again as new information comes in. Scientists are still finding many old conclusions that they thought were settled science, just are not.

From the No Tricks Zone: (by Kenneth Richard on 10, May 2018)

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped —nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over 4 months into the new publication year and already 81 graphs from 62 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.

Do follow the link and see some of the graphs. They come from all over the world, and illustrate natural variation. Here in Seattle we had snow on Christmas eve, just enough to make the trees look pretty, and that was it for the whole winter. A few cold days that it tried, without success, to snow. We’ve had years when we were essentially snowed in with icy streets, and we had one good sledding year on the hill in front of my house.

I make no pretense of being a scientist. But I grew up outdoors in the foothills of the Rockies, and I’ve been snowed in, flooded out, and even had the Union Pacific railroad derailed in my front yard. Sorry, no one is going to convince me that normal changes in the weather are a catastrophe.



Apologies!
May 15, 2018, 11:15 pm
Filed under: Politics

Sorry about the absence of blogging. Mother’s Day, Sick Cats, Computer acting up. All fixed now. New diet for cats. Mother’s Day nicely celebrated, new modem installed. Things are working. Back to normal, maybe.Apologies.



New Twists in the Plot of Our Soap Opera! Can You Keep Up?

It continues. There was an FBI mole in the Trump campaign.  The Inspector General’s report is due out soon. The FBI can’t tell the House Intelligence Committee who they are getting their information from, since it would be dangerous and people would die, but under pressure they are showing it to Nunes and Gowdy. The idea that the FBI planted a mole in the campaign which they opposed politically, is damning. Comey cannot stop babbling, and how did he ever get appointed Director anyway? So we have lost whatever respect for the FBI that we once had. They clearly cannot be trusted if they are playing politics with an election, and trying to effect the outcome, when they are supposed to be responsible public servants.

Hillary announced that she lost because she is a capitalist and the rest of the Democrats are socialists. Nancy Pelosi said the first thing they would do when they take over after the mid-terms is to raise taxes back to where they ought to be. Can’t have all this good economic news. The Deplorables might get ideas.

Questions have arisen over who is paying Avenatti, Stormy Daniels lawyer, and there are legal and ethical questions about how he got into Michael Cohen’s bank records, and how did he get records for two people named Michael Cohen who he wrongly accused in a seven-page dossier this week, and there are questions about a bankrupt Tully’s coffee chain and there is a legal complaint seeking Avenatti’s disbarment.

The Democrats want the Iran Deal back because legacy. California is going to require that all new homes install solar cells on their roofs because global warming, which will add at least $30,000 to the price of a new house,already so high nobody can afford to buy one and people are shipping out for anywhere where the cost of living is cheaper and Jerry Brown is not governor.

Our own legislature  here in Washington State has just wrapped up a session for “a stronger American democracy”, with automatic voter registration, which will allow more illegal aliens to vote.( A Border Patrol officer said they are happy to admit that they voted in the last election.) They also passed same-day voter registration, and voter pre-registration to let high school students make the decision to be voters and be ready to exercise their right to vote the very day they turn 18.
The 18 year-olds I know certainly should not be voting.

I’m tempted to make some snarky remark here, but real events are beyond snarky remarks. Perhaps we should drag out good old fashioned tar and feathers. That might even sway a few votes.



The Soap Opera of the Century!

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This Mueller investigation has become the soap opera of the century. Some new twist every day. The inspector general’s report on the activities of the FBI is due out soon. It is said to be devastating to the most executive floor of the FBI. The House Intelligence Committee has subpoenaed the founding document of the entire investigation and the FBI is refusing to turn it over.

We flip over and back to questions of law and constitution and who can do what to whom. A special counsel’s investigation is supposed to start with a crime to be investigated, but this one just started with the hope that they would find a crime in the process.  They indicted Paul Manafort for things unrelated to the Russia thing, but although investigating collusion with the Russians to influence the election was the supposed reason for the whole mess, Paul Manafort was supposed to have done something illegal about something entirely different, at a different time.

Andy McCarthy who is invaluable for explaining matters of law in this kind of thing, said “The president’s job is more critical to the nation than Robert Mueller’s investigation.”  And added:

That does not mean Mueller’s investigation is insignificant; it is crucial that we fully uncover Russia’s interference in the 2016 election (the aim of the counterintelligence investigation Mueller was assigned to conduct) so that we can thwart the Kremlin in the future. But it does mean that Mueller’s desire for investigative secrecy and the ability to interview every witness who might have relevant evidence has to give way to other priorities.

President Trump apparently feels that he has done nothing whatsoever wrong, and would like to answer Mueller’s questions to get this thing over with, and his advisors tell him no, that it’s just a trap for the Democrats hope for impeachment. But yes, he could fire Mueller, but it would be bad politics, and so it goes. As I said, the soap opera of the century. We cannot ignore the whole thing, because there might be developments, but… on the other hand we can’t sit around waiting for something that will clarify the entire mess. Ive been around for quite a few administrations, but I have never seen anything like this.

While our attention is fixed on Mueller, North Korea has released their American citizen hostages to the Secretary of State, and the President and First Lady went out to welcome them home at 3:00 clock in the morning. The Iran Deal has been fortuitously dumped, John Kerry is running around trying to get the other partners to the “deal” to do something, but it was never a signed treaty anyway. The Paris Climate Deal has also been fortuitously dumped, and the Left is having vapors over that, but it would do nothing whatsoever for the climate except transfer a lot of advanced countries’ money to the poor countries, which was the idea in the first place. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s show which will undoubtedly have some development that won’t clarify anything.

 



The Deep State: A Landmine That Might Blow Up

Here’s another must-read post from Victor Davis Hanson, from National Review    entitled “The Trump Land Mine.”

After the 2016 election, the so-called deep state was confident that it had the power easily to either stop, remove, or delegitimize the outlier Donald Trump and his presidency.

Give it credit, the Washington apparat quite imaginatively pulled out all the stops: implanting Obama holdover appointees all over the Trump executive branch; filing lawsuits and judge shopping; organizing the Resistance; pursuing impeachment writs; warping the FISA courts; weaponizing the DOJ and FBI; attempting to disrupt the Electoral College; angling for enactment of the 25th Amendment or the emoluments clause; and unleashing Hollywood celebrities, Silicon Valley, and many in Wall Street to suffocate the Trump presidency in its infancy.

But now the administrative state’s multifaceted efforts are starting to unwind, and perhaps even boomerang, on the perpetrators. If a federal judge should end up throwing out most of the indictments of Paul Manafort on the rationale that they have nothing much to do with the original mandate of the special counsel’s office, or if Michael Flynn’s confession to giving false statements is withdrawn successfully because the FBI politicized its investigation and FISA courts were misled in approving the surveillance of Flynn, then the Mueller investigation will implode.

The rest is here.




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